Drier Air Returns Tomorrow

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SHORT TERM: Yep… I know all the snow lovers are buzzing about late this weekend and early next week, but before we get there…

Light rain and drizzle will continue in spots tonight, but drier air works back into Alabama tomorrow. Morning clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine, with a high in the 47 to 50 degree range. Friday and Saturday will remain cool and dry, with highs between 47 and 52, and lows down in the 20s. Very routine weather for early January in Alabama.

SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK: A very uncertain forecast. There will be lots of rumors of storms floating around here, but absolutely nobody knows at this point exactly how this whole thing plays out due to model uncertainty. Be sure and watch the afternoon Weather Xtreme video for a blow by blow account of model output for this time frame.

Let’s take it by the 12Z model runs…

GFS (Global Forecast System, the primary American global model): The 12Z run has a surface low in the Gulf displaced far enough to the south for rain on Sunday mainly over the southern quarter of Alabama. As the low moves northeast, a little light rain or snow could move up this way Sunday night or Monday morning, but precipitation would be very light. Then, a strong vorticity max in the northern stream on Tuesday brings a chance of light snow or snow flurries to the northern half of the state. Nothing especially heavy… then very cold air settles in here for the mid-week period. Cold and dry is the look for Wednesday and Thursday.

ECMWF: (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, often called the Euro): This one makes snow lovers happy. Snow is likely on this model for the northern third of Alabama late Sunday night into Monday, with potential for 2-4 inches mainly along and north of I-20. Then very cold air drops into the state in the wake of the system for mid-week. THIS IS NO FORECAST… just model output!

GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale, the Canadian): Mostly rain Sunday into Sunday night, ending Monday, followed by colder air Tuesday and Wednesday. No snow. We note the GEM has not performed well this cold weather season.

JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency): Lots of rain on Monday, no snow. Again, this model is not especially effective (at least for our part of the world) and we don’t look at it that often.

OUR FORECAST: Long time readers know I prefer a persistence type approach to forecasts in the medium range… so don’t look for much change on this forecast package. For now, I will continue to mention mostly rain Sunday, with a potential change to snow Sunday night and Monday before it all ends. Then, much colder air invades the state for the rest of next week. Models won’t handle this cold air very well… but it remains to be seen if we will catch the cold air in full force, or just a glancing blow. One way or another I still expect the weather around here to be very cold in the January 12-20 time frame… we just don’t know how cold yet.

Be sure and scroll down for a look at temperatures in the core of that cold air as gathered up by the great American weather legend, J.B. Elliott.

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Tags: damp

Category: Alabama's Weather