Some Snow Sunday/Monday????

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SUN BY AFTERNOON: Before we get to the potential for snow, let’s discuss improving weather today. Drier air and subsidence should mean morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine for Alabama today; the high will be close to 50 where the sun can break out, with low 50s for West Alabama. Some places near the Georgia border, where the clouds hang tough longer, won’t get past the mid 40s.

TOMORROW/SATURDAY: Pretty simple forecast here with cool and dry weather both days; highs close to 50 with morning lows at or below freezing.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Please take the time to watch the Weather Xtreme video, which should answer all of your questions with the various graphics. Bottom line is that a low will develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico in response to short wave energy approaching from the west. This low will move northeast toward Charleston early next week, and is in the classic place for some winter weather issues for North Alabama. But, as always, the question is the depth and intensity of the cold air.

The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS suggest mostly rain for North-Central Alabama Sunday, with a change to snow Sunday night or Monday. Both models are warmer on these most recent runs, and really keep the best accumulating snow north of here, near the Tennessee border.

The GFS continues to show limited moisture in the primary snow growth zone, and a warm nose about 5,000 feet off the ground, which is not really good for a big snow here. In fact, if the air near the surface is a little colder than forecast, we might have to worry about a period of freezing rain at some point during this event (rain that falls when surface temperatures are below 32).

Again, I stress there is no way of knowing right now exactly how this whole thing will play out; we don’t like to get really specific about snow accumulation projections until we get within 48 hours of an event like this. Everybody will have an opinion on the outcome, just like everybody has a belly button, but it will be just lots of speculation.

BOTTOM LINE: We will forecast rain Sunday spreading north across the state, with a possible change to snow Sunday night and Monday. Too early to determine if there will be any accumulating snow here or not. Stay tuned; I will probably throw out that first accumulation potential map tomorrow morning.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: Looks like snow flurries will remain possible into Tuesday, with cold and dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday. The next impulse comes along Friday (Jan 14), but it would be just warm enough for rain. The really cold air we have been worried about doesn’t show up until January 20… see the Weather Xtreme video for a good look at that possibility. Still great concern we will be very cold across the continental U.S., and perhaps the Deep South, in the Jan 12-22 time frame, and the latest operational GFS is hinting it might be toward Jan 19-22.

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I will be doing a weather program at Greystone Elementary later today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: cold, snow

Category: Alabama's Weather