Mild Weather To Continue

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Not quite as cold nor as foggy this morning across Central Alabama. Temperatures were in the range from the mid 30s in the cooler eastern sections to the lower 40s in the central portion of the area. And it looks like we’re in for another great day more typical of late October than of the middle of December.

It’s a tale of split flow for the next several days as an upper level ridge holds over the Southeast states. A long trough from western Canada to a closed low over Southern California will decouple today. The trough over Canada will move quickly eastward and develop a stronger trough along the East Coast of the US by Tuesday. This trough will drag a weak front into Tennessee but it shouldn’t come much further south.

The closed low over Southern California will hang back until the middle of the week when it begins to eject eastward and northeastward. As it does, a surface low will develop and bring a cold front toward Alabama on Thursday. With the Gulf wide open we should see some pretty good chances for rain in the latter half of Thursday and into Friday. With abundant moisture, we may see rainfall amounts over one inch. This would be helpful since we’ve only seen about a quarter of an inch of rain through the first half of the month.

It looks like we’ll dry out on Saturday, but another upper level trough drops in behind the first one. I’m a little suspicious of the look because it just seems that the GFS might be overdoing the strength of the next system. As the GFS presents it, the deep trough with a close low will come across South Texas with a surface low in the Gulf on the 24th and 25h. This could present us with a wet Christmas eve and Christmas day. And this closed low sets up a much colder pattern with the possibility of a wintery threat around December 27th. There is some support for this in the NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation, forecasts which have been suggesting a cold period roughly between Christmas and New Years. What I don’t like is the lack of model consistency, so I certainly would not be sticking my neck way out with a snow forecast just yet. It is certainly interesting and something to keep an eye on during future model runs.

I’m off to church shortly to handle the ushering duties. Then to the station to handle the weekend duties for John Oldshue. I certainly appreciate you tuning in to the video and the Blog and hope that you have a great upcoming week. God bless.

-Brian-

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