A White Christmas?

About this time of year, a week or so from Christmas, many people in the southern portion of the United States begin to hope for a white Christmas. I have a background from snow country having grown up in Vermont, and I really like snow. I like it a lot better when I don’t have to work because snow is just fun. Not necessarily so when you are in the weather business and you are working because snow in the South can be a real challenge to forecast – you have to have just the right mix of conditions to get snow here.

But I digress from a white Christmas. Looking back over the last 110 years of weather records for Birmingham you’ll find that there never has been a classic white Christmas here. Classic is defined to mean snow falling and measurable snow on the ground. We came close once. In December, 1985, flurries fell on Christmas Eve and in the early hours of Christmas morning producing a dusting of snow in some areas, but snow was not deep enough to measure.

Back in 1929, weather records show that 5.5 inches of snow fell at the city office on December 22 and there was still snow on the ground at 7 pm on Christmas Eve. But most of the snow melted on Christmas Day when the temperature climbed to 51 degrees.

So what are the possibilities for Christmas 2006? Before I go further, consider that Christmas Day is still more than 180 hours away, well into the realm of voodoo. But that won’t stop me. Current model output suggests a mild but wet day for Central Alabama. I would speculate that temperatures will be in the 50s for afternoon readings.

What is becoming more interesting is the weather pattern on the 26th and 27th. The latest GFS model run has a low pressure system developing in the Gulf and tracking northeastward across the Southeast US in response to a fairly strong upper level low moving across Texas. The surface low with it’s counter-clockwise circulation pulls cold air into the South from the Central Plains with some substantial overrunning precipitation across the Mid-South. This suggests some winter weather for Arkansas, West Tennessee and North Mississippi and perhaps Northwest Alabama.

And there are even some strong indicators that the GFS might be right!! No, not something like the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) or El Nino, but something more definite!! James Spann will be on vacation – a sure sign that something BIG could happen!!

So stay plugged into the Blog and we’ll keep you apprized as future model runs help us refine the outlook!! But please, don’t hold your breathe.

-Brian-
Your snow mongering friend

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