Rain Or Snow?

Most of you know I am not on the grid as often on the weekend… we all have families and other important things we have to focus on during our “off days”… but after about 100 e-mails asking my opinion for Tuesday night and Wednesday… Here are some quick notes…

*Conventional model data suggests the low levels (5,000 feet and down) are a little too warm for a big snow event.

*The models generally speaking have trended north and east with the position of the surface low roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico.

*The 12Z NAM is very wet with 1.03” liquid for Birmingham through 84 hours.

*A good rain event is likely for Alabama Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

*Heights at 500 mb drop to 5460 meters over Alabama early Wednesday morning, with temps near -24 degrees (C)

*HPC suggests a decent chance of a 4 inch plus snow for the northern third of Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday morning:

Very difficult call here. Standard model guidance suggests mostly rain here with no major snow on the back side of the system, but long time observers know how wrong guidance can be with a big time ULL passing overhead. Dynamic cooling can make for some very large snow amounts. Anyone remember December 1997? Eight inches of snow along U.S. 80 from Jackson, MS to Demopolis with MOS temps forecast near 50 with all rain?

The guys at HPC clearly see this possibility, and have reflected it in their forecast. I don’t like to call snow events on weekends since I am not locked into data like I am during the week… so you won’t be getting a specific forecast/accumulation potential chart from me until early, early tomorrow morning after the 00Z/06Z data sets are in, and I have more time to look at everything. This can go either way, so stay tuned…

Tags: snow

Category: Alabama's Weather