Tis The Week Before Christmas…

The Monday morning ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Let me say up front here we are getting into vacation season. J.B. Elliott will take a long deserved vacation this week; he will officially be back in the saddle on Christmas Day. Then, I will be away next week, December 25-29, returning for duty on January 1, 1007. The blog will be up and running as always with the Weather Xtreme video… but it will be fruit basket turnover.

THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: Two more spring-like days are ahead. We expect a high today and tomorrow between 70 and 73, which is over 15 degrees above the “normal” high of 55. The record high today is 76 (set in 1984), and tomorrow’s record is 75 (also set in 1984); it is unlikely we reach those levels, but I guess not totally out of the question. Lots of sunshine both days as a warm upper ridge covers the Deep South.

WEDNESDAY: While a major storm continues to move out of the Southwest U.S. slowly, the precipitation shield will stay west of here on Wednesday, But, a wedge of cooler air will slip into the state from the state, and daytime temperatures should drop about 10 degrees, especially over the central and eastern part of the state. Communities near the Mississippi border could stay close to 70, but in our forecast we have the high in the low 60s on Wednesday.

RAIN RETURNS: Rain will move back into Alabama during the day Thursday, and will continue Thursday night into Friday as a surface front makes only slow progress through the state as it will be parallel to the upper air winds. We expect highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s on these days, and rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely. There could be a little thunder involved, but the air sure looks cool and stable.

SATURDAY: The 06Z run of the GFS (the latest we have in house as I write this) suggests Saturday will be dry and cool, but with a southwest flow aloft I can sure see clouds and some rain lingering. But, I will roll with the model output for now and not mention any rain on Saturday.

CHRISTMAS EVE: Rain returns to Alabama on Sunday as another upper trough approaches from the west. This trough will spin up a surface low in the northwest Gulf of Mexico, and might bring a little snow to the Lone Star State of Texas, but just wet weather for Alabama. The air remains stable so severe storms won’t be a problem.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Colder air rolls into Alabama as the rain moves out. At this point it looks like our weather will be mostly cloudy and cold, with a high in the 40 to 45 degree range. Yep, in the wrap-around moisture I guess we might find a few snow flurries over the northern half of the state, but nothing now to suggest anything beyond that.

DECEMBER 26-JANUARY 1: This, of course, is in voodoo land, but the overall pattern suggests changeable weather for Alabama with a chance of rain around December 28, followed by some colder air December 29-30. The overall pattern still suggests any cold air shot won’t be too long lasting in this week between Christmas and New Years. And, it is a difficult pattern to forecast, so every model run will look different and there is no way to be specific this far in advance. Everytime a run shows the 5400 meter 500-1000 mb thickness line (sometimes a good rain-snow line) south of I-20, and some green on the surface charts, the snow fans start going crazy, but no need for that since what makes you happy will probably be long gone on the next run.

INTO 2007 WE GO: I will hold opinion of any patterns ideas into the New Year until later today and I have some time to look at the various teleconnections. I haven’t had much time to look at weather this weekend with some sickness running through our family (anyone relate to this problem???)… I will comment more on the afternoon post later today.

I am looking forward to speaking today at Brookwood Forest Elementary School in Mountain Brook… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and have the afternoon video ready by 3:30. Remember, J.B. is off this week so all of you Miss Molly fans will have to wait until Christmas for your next episode!

Category: Uncategorized