Rain Tomorrow; Snow Wednesday Morning?
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WATCH THE VIDEO: Yet another forecast with a very challenging call on rain or snow for Alabama. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion…
TODAY/TONIGHT: Cloudy with a little light rain or drizzle in spots. The high today will be in the mid 50s, right at average levels for late January in Alabama.
GOOD RAIN EVENT TOMORROW: Rain will become widespread across Alabama tomorrow as the long awaited surface low forms in the Gulf. The NAM is printing 0.72″ for Birmingham through 84 hours, with the GFS very similar at 0.77″.
TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: Here comes the hard part. Models are actually in very good agreement with a surface low lifting northeast of out of the Gulf, moving up toward Savannah and Cape Hatteras. At the same time, a cold core upper low will move right on top of us, presenting the classic forecast dilemma. Some notes on this….
*Classic model output will show only rain for North-Central Alabama due to relatively warm air in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere.
*But, we have been burned by “classic model output” in this kind of situation many times over the years.
*Classic example… December 1997, when MOS products suggested rain and a high in the low 50s for places like Jackson and Meridian, MS, and Demopolis, AL. A cold core came along and brought up 8 inches of snow in this region with temperatures peaking in the mid 30s, almost 15 degrees below forecast levels.
*Temperatures at 500 mb (about 18,000-20,000 feet up) are forecast to drop to near -25 degrees (C) over Birmingham by daybreak Wednesday. Dynamic cooling associated with the upper low, no doubt, will bring colder air down from above. Much like December 1997.
*Long time readers have heard us say… “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe”. Bottom line is that there is little skill in this kind of setup, and unfortunately I do not believe we have enough skill to produce a snow accumulation potential graphic this morning (you know, the ones with the nice straight red lines that bring great weeping and gnashing of teeth). More than likely, I will draw one up this afternoon, but I am not comfortable doing it this morning.
*This setup can produce more snow than you think. Somebody over North Alabama could wind up with 5 inches or more, with nothing but rain for areas away from the upper low track.
*If we do see snow, the greatest likelihood of this will be from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. Wednesday.
*There is no Arctic air moving in following this system, so if we do see snow, it won’t stay on the ground for a week (like the last winter storm here)
BOTTOM LINE: We will mention rain tomorrow, with some potential for the rain to change to snow late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. No accumulation forecast yet, and no placement forecast yet. Let’s look at the 12Z model runs for better clarity in the upper low strength and position.
REST OF THE WEEK: The weather will be dry Wednesday through Friday with seasonal temperatures. Highs around 50, with lows mostly in the 20s. A little below average values for this time of the year.
WEEKEND PEEK: Looks pretty decent. A good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 47-50 degree range.
LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: The 06Z GFS continues the idea of a storm system around Ground Hog’s Day with potential for winter mischief. The last few runs have been a little warmer, but this is all voodoo for now. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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Busy day today with stops at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, and Gaston School in Etowah County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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