Colder Weather By Christmas

The Monday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Be sure and scroll down and read David Black’s post on the history lesson in the Alabama woods… I love stories and trips like that.

No doubt next week, generally speaking, will be much colder than this week. The details will be tough to nail down, but here we go. Let’s take it on a day by day basis since so many people will be traveling in coming days…

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: A light flow from the north/northeast will bring temperatures down only slightly tomorrow; still looks like we rise well into the 60s. Some clouds around, but no rain. Pretty much the same story on Wednesday; looks like highs will drop into the 60 to 64 degree range on Wednesday. To the west, a pretty good snow storm will wind up over the southern part of Colorado, much of New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Rain returns to the state Thursday; looks like the best chance of rain during the day Thursday will be along and north of I-20, with the rain overspreading the state Thursday night and Friday. Maybe a little elevated convection with some thunder, but the air should be rather stable and no issues with severe weather are expected. I still think rain amounts of one to two inches are likely, although the 12Z HPC QPF suggests a narrow strip of amounts from 2 to 2.5 inches along I-59. Seems a little aggressive to me.

SATURDAY: We should have a break in the rain, meaning a pretty decent day for the Papajohn.com Bowl at Legion Field Saturday afternoon. The high will be somewhere between 54 and 59, and although some clouds will linger, we don’t expect any rain at this time. To the west, another good looking system will bring the risk of snow to much of the western half of Texas on Saturday, possibly as far east as Dallas/Fort Worth.

SUNDAY: The word is wet for Alabama as a storm system moves right over the state. Looks like another one to two inch rain event with some thunder, but no severe weather. The best chance of snow Christmas Eve with this system will be over the southern half of Missouri and far northern Arkansas.

CHRISTMAS DAY: For Alabama the weather looks chilly and dry. Highs in the mid 40s, with morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sun.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: No need to really worry about specifics right now since that is deep into voodoo land. Some hint of a decent cold pop the day after Christmas that might get us down in the 20s by Tuesday morning December 26. This pattern favors storm systems forming over the southwest U.S. every few days, but trying to time them out is almost impossible in the longer ranges.

Yeah, I see the big Arctic blast on the 12Z GFS valid for January 2, 2007… but again, no need to buy into anything like that now. I have peeked into enough long range ensemble charts today (NAO, PNA, AO, SOI) to make my head spin, but drawing a conclusion is difficult due to conflicting signals. Lets just let the pattern talk to us in the next few days and we might be able to finally make bring some educated ideas to the table when it comes to weather for January 2007. We also need to find some good analog years to study.

I saw a great group of third graders today at Brookwood Forest Elementary in Mountain Brook… look for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. I will have the next map discussion video ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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