Main Severe Weather Risk To The South

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RIGHT NOW: A tornado watch remains in effect for Southwest Alabama until 8:00… up this way a large mass of rain covers North and Central Alabama, and with no surface based CAPE, and no real elevated CAPE, the chance of a classic severe weather problem look pretty small for the northern half of the state. However, with such a dynamic weather system moving through, it won’t take much to bring strong winds aloft down to the surface, so we will still keep an eye on the radar’s velocity products this evening. The main risk of severe weather in Alabama tonight will be along and south of U.S. 80.

We are still projecting rain totals in the one inch range for most of Alabama… and it now looks like the rain will be pretty much over by 9:00 as things are progressing quickly.

COLD AIR GETTING CLOSE: I notice on the Little Rock NWS chat session they are now down to 29 degrees… just down I-40 Memphis is at 61 degrees on the other side of the Arctic front. The cold front will pass through Alabama tonight, and we will be in the mid to upper 20s at daybreak tomorrow with an icy north wind.

IN BLIZZARD COUNTRY: Just saw a report of 18 inches of snow on the ground in Joplin Missouri, and they just reported a 59 mph wind gust. You don’t see blizzards like this too often. Our sister station in Tulsa is reporting 10 inches on the ground there… and amounts of 10 to 20 inches are common through much Northeast Oklahoma and Southern Missouri. The big blizzard is now moving up into the Chicago area, where they could see over two feet in some parts of town. Blizzard warnings remain in effect for all of this region through tonight. Most of the states have declared states of emergency.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: We will struggle to reach the low 40s both days. The sun should peek out from time to time tomorrow, but Thursday will be cloudy with some rain breaking out over South Alabama.

ICING ISSUES EARLY FRIDAY? The rain over South Alabama will move northward Thursday night, and should cover much of Alabama south of U.S. 278 by daybreak Friday. It sure looks like surface temperatures will be at or just below freezing for areas along and north of I-20, meaning freezing rain and potential bridge icing issues. We will be much more specific on this threat tomorrow, but just be aware that Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, and maybe even Tuscaloosa could see a period of freezing rain early Friday morning that could result in very icy bridges and overpasses. Temperatures will warm into the mid 30s by late morning Friday, so it won’t be a long term issue, but just be aware that travel problems are possible Friday morning across North-Central Alabama for a brief time.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A cold rain will fall on Friday, and as it tapers off Friday night we might see a little light snow or a few snow flurries, but for now it doesn’t look like a big deal. The weekend will be dry… the high Saturday will be in the 40s with gradual clearing, followed by low 50s on Sunday with a partly sunny sky.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: While Monday looks decent with a high in the 50s, an Arctic cold front will roar through here Monday night, and bring some very cold air down into Alabama by Tuesday and Wednesday. Keep in mind this air is coming across the vast snow pack to the north, and it certainly won’t have much time to modify. Looks like we might have a hard time getting above freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday, with a hard freeze likely Wednesday and Thursday morning with lows well down in the teens.

LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: The positive NAO still suggests the main upper trough axis will be west of Alabama this month, setting the stage for icing mischief a time or two as very shallow cold air seeps in here, with a disturbed southwest flow aloft. Looks like some challenging days in the forecast office for sure… see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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I had a great time today seeing the 1st graders at Concord Elementary School… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: cold, rain, snow

Category: Alabama's Weather