Back Into The Cold Air
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A CHILL IN THE AIR: So much for the mild weather we have enjoyed in recent days… temperatures are generally below freezing this morning across North Alabama, and we will have a hard time reaching the low 40s today with an icy northwest wind. There will be a few intervals of sunshine, but the sun won’t last long as a southwest flow aloft persists thanks to the upper trough hanging back over the southwest U.S.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Rain will break out over South Alabama tomorrow, and will move northward tomorrow night, reaching the I-20 corridor by midnight. And that brings up the question of p-type from about midnight tomorrow night through 8:00 a.m. Friday. Conventional model output from the NAM, GFS, and RPM suggest it will be mostly a cold rain for Alabama, with potential for freezing rain just to the west over much of Central Mississippi, where the cold air is a little more entrenched. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics, but for now it looks like any freezing rain (maybe some sleet at the onset) around here won’t be too problematic.
Having said that, let’s keep a close eye on trends over the next 24 hours since you rarely have one to two feet of snow on the ground northwest of Alabama… which means it might be a little colder at the surface than the models are showing.
Friday will be cold and wet with widespread rain… we will probably sit in the mid to upper 30s much of the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: The next issue comes as the surface low responsible for Friday’s rain lifts northeast. Models are suggesting the rain could change to light snow late Friday night and Saturday morning as the precipitation is ending, and we will mention this in the forecast. For now it looks to be very light and no significant accumulation is expected. The main window for light snow will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. Saturday.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: We might see a little clearing Saturday afternoon with a high in the 40s, but Sunday promises to be the nicer day, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low 50s.
NEXT WEEK: More Arctic air is headed our way. The 06Z GFS shows an amazing 1056 mb high over Montana early in the week, and the front blows through here late Monday night with a chance of showers ahead of the front, and some snow in the cold air behind the front. Once again, the snow looks like it will be relatively light, maybe giving some folks a dusting to 1/2 inch, but the cold is certainly the big story. We will, most likely, not get out of the 30s Tuesday, perhaps staying below freezing all day, with wind chill index values well below freezing all day. And, a hard freeze is likely for both Wednesday and Thursday morning.
LONG RANGE: I sure get the idea that this might be the last in the series of Arctic air shots, and just maybe after next week the worst of the winter cold will be over for Alabama. No promise, of course, but the period Feb 12-20 sure looks much warmer for Alabama, and once we get into March we all know it can be pretty cold at times, but with the higher sun angle, longer days, and the approach of spring, getting the brutally cold air down into the Deep South is much harder late in the season.
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I have a weather program today at Bluff Park Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather