Cold And Unsettled Week

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TODAY: A little light rain has been falling over West Alabama this morning, but that precipitation has been shrinking rapidly as it moves to the east into the drier air over East Alabama. We might hear of a few sleet reports east of I-65 within the next, but almost all of that precipitation will initially evaporate before reaching the ground where the air is colder.

Today will be cloudy and cool with some scattered light rain possible along with a high in the 40s. Later today and early tonight, and the cold air drops south, there is actually a pretty good chance that the rain will mix with, or change to light snow over the northern third of the state, but temperatures will be well above freezing and significant accumulation is not expected. Some places over Northeast Alabama, especially the higher terrain, might see a dusting on the grass. Snow flurries could linger to around midnight.

TOMORROW: Dry and cold weather is the story tomorrow… partly sunny with a high in the low to mid 40s. We begin the day tomorrow down in the 20s.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: This is the period the snow lovers have been watching closely. Let me say up front the GFS isn’t making much sense with the upper air pattern, and is rejected for this forecast. The RPM, NAM, and ECMWF are actually in pretty good agreement with the next wave coming in from the west.

Clouds will thicken Wednesday, and some rain is possible by afternoon. There is a good chance the rain changes to snow Wednesday night for areas along and north of I-20 (how many times has that highway been the dividing line this year?), and some accumulating snow is likely. The RPM and the NAM are the most aggressive with the moisture, while the ECMWF is a little drier. I think the best course of action for now is to play it conservative and forecast 1 to 2 inches north of I-20, with a dusting possible down to Eutaw, Brent, Calera, Ashland, and Roanoke. Light rain is likely to the south over the southern half of Alabama.

This won’t be an historic snow event at all… the most aggressive NAM would suggest up to 4 inches in spots, but again most guidance has us in that 1-2 inch range. It is still too early for a snow accumulation potential graphic; more than likely that will be included on the afternoon discussion and video here. Let’s get a good look at the 12Z/15Z guidance before we do that.

We all know 1-2 inches of snow can be enough to create driving issues since we do expect to be below freezing early Thursday morning, so just be aware we might have a rough commute Thursday morning.

The sky becomes partly sunny Thursday afternoon as drier air moves in following the snow.

FRIDAY: The cold air following the system won’t be nearly as bad as the GFS advertised a week ago… we are projecting a low in the 15-19 degree range early Friday, followed by a high in the upper 30s Friday (we are going below GFS guidance), but the sky should be mostly sunny on Friday which will help to make it feel a little better.

WEEKEND WARM-UP: The cold air on Friday won’t hang around long. The weekend will feature lots of sunshine with a very nice warming trend. We will be close to 50 Saturday afternoon, and close to 60 Sunday as the upper pattern begins to finally settle down.

VOODOO LAND/LONG RANGE: It still looks like the second half of February will be milder than the first half, generally speaking. No doubt we will have a few cold snaps, but with a positive NAO and no big western ridge to tap Arctic air, just maybe the worst of the winter is over after this week. No promises, however….

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I have a weather program today at Crestline Elementary School in Mountain Brook… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so today. Enjoy the day!

Tags: cold, snow

Category: Alabama's Weather