Severe Weather Threat Late Tomorrow Night

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THIS MORNING: What a huge variation in temperature. Cullman and Haleyville are below freezing at 5:00…. while Birmingham is 15 degrees warmer at 45. Another great example of how this is not a “one number” kind of place when forecasting low temperatures on a clear, calm night. We warm up quickly today with a strong February sun, and most places should reach the low 70s this afternoon. Yet another delightful late winter day.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A vigorous storm system will move out of the southwest U.S. tomorrow, bringing the risk of severe weather to parts of the southern U.S. SPC has now issued a moderate risk for the Memphis/Little Rock area, with a larger slight risk (their standard risk) from near Dallas/Fort Worth east to Birmingham, Nashville, and Louisville. I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.

Severe storms will erupt tomorrow afternoon to the west, impacting much of Northeast Texas, East Oklahoma, Arkansas, North Louisiana, Northwest Mississippi, and West Tennessee during the late afternoon hours. And, all of that will be heading our way for late tomorrow night.

TIMING: A few isolated severe storms could develop over Northwest Alabama in the 9:00 p.m. to midnight range tomorrow night, and these are the ones to watch for potential rotation and isolated tornadoes as there will be sufficient helicity (veering of the wind with altitude) for rotating updrafts. Then, the activity should roll into a long squall line, that will pass through North and Central Alabama in the midnight to 8:00 a.m. time frame Friday. The RPM shows that squall line in the Birmingham metro area in the 5-6 a.m. time frame Friday.

The main threat will be from damaging straight line winds during the overnight hours… but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. The storms should weaken south and east of Birmingham early Friday morning with weakening instability and dynamics by then.

REMEMBER: We haven’t dealt with a severe weather issue in a while, and most people cannot hear outdoor warning sirens in the middle of the night inside homes and businesses, so be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio programmed (with battery backup) in your home so you won’t miss any warnings. Never rely on outdoor warning sirens….

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The sky becomes partly sunny Friday afternoon with a high in the 60s. Saturday promises to be another beautiful day with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the low 70s.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES: A powerful storm system will bring another severe weather threat to the Deep South late Sunday night into Monday. The GFS is a little faster… suggesting our main risk will come from 6:00 p.m. Sunday through 10:00 a.m. Monday… but don’t be surprised if later runs are little slower showing the main risk during the day Monday. It is too early to be specific on this threat… we have to get tomorrow night’s system out of here before we can really take a good look at the small scale features, but at first glance it sure looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible across a wide area, so we will be watching this one very carefully in coming days.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather looks dry Tuesday through Thursday with cool mornings and pleasant days… we might be close to freezing early Tuesday and Wednesday, but highs will be mostly in the 60s.

LONG RANGE: See the Weather Xtreme video for details… seems like the westerlies dip a little more to the south in the March 7-10 time frame that might pull some colder air down here. We expect several more morning freezes before we get into the core of spring.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

I have a weather program this morning at Piedmont Middle School in Calhoun County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. And, don’t forget we will be in Lincoln tomorrow evening for Storm Alert 2011 at Lincoln High School in Talladega County; that show begins at 6:45…

Tags: Severe Weather

Category: Alabama's Weather