Severe Weather Threat Tonight

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STORM ALERT 2011: Our severe weather awareness show IS on tonight… we will be at Lincoln High School in Talladega County; the show begins at 6:45 and we hope to see you there. The severe weather threat will be well after the show is over.

RIGHT NOW: The NWS in Memphis has just issued the first tornado warning of our event… a warning for the area just below Jackson, Tennessee… a lone storm has developed there with good sign of low level rotation. A tornado watch is up for much of West Tennessee and North Mississippi until 10:00… the STP (significant tornado parameter) is highest now just north of Oxford, Mississippi, and this is the region that will be most favored for tornado development in coming hours.

HERE IN ALABAMA: While a few discreet cells could form over the far northwest corner of the state between 6:00 and midnight with a risk of isolated tornadoes, it still looks like the activity to the west will roll into one big squall line, that will move through North and Central Alabama between midnight and 6:00 a.m. The prime threat will be along and west of I-59 (Fort Payne to Gadsden to Birmingham to Tuscaloosa to Livingston), coming mostly in the form of damaging straight line winds. However, shear profiles suggest a few small tornadoes could be embedded in the line, especially over Northwest Alabama.

The storms should weaken as they move south and east of Birmingham after 4:00 a.m…. but we can’t rule out a warning or two as far east and south as Anniston and Clanton toward daybreak tomorrow.

REMEMBER: With these overnight events, many people will be asleep when severe weather warnings are being issued… be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed and in service so you won’t miss any warnings. And, you can sign up for ABC 33/40 WeatherCall, which sends warnings to the phone of your choice.

TOMORROW: The sky will become partly to mostly sunny by midday as drier air works into the state, with a high in the mid to upper 60s.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be splendid day, with ample sunshine. We start the day in the 37-40 degree range, but rise quickly into the low 70s thanks to a strong late February sun. But, on Sunday, moisture returns quickly. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few passing showers are possible with a high well in the 70s.

MORE SEVERE WEATHER: Another vigorous short wave will bring another severe weather risk to Alabama Monday. While the very deep surface low is well to the north of Alabama, the upper support certainly will support severe weather issues this far south. Still looks like all modes of severe weather will be possible Monday… we will have a much better idea of the nature of the threat and the timing by tomorrow, after tonight’s system is out of here.

Tuesday through Thursday of next week will be pleasant with comfortable days and chilly nights. Colder spots could be close to freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday morning, most other places will see a low in the 36-41 degree range. Highs will be mostly in the 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

Thanks to the kids at North River Christian Academy in Tuscaloosa, and Greenwood Elementary in Bessemer… they were a great audience today… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow evening on ABC 33/40 News at 5 and 6. We will keep the blog fresh with running updates on the severe weather situation throughout the night… stay tuned…

Tags: tornado

Category: Alabama's Weather