Weekend Wet-Down Ahead

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THIS MORNING: We actually have a few spots below freezing this morning… some 5:00 temperatures include 29 at Haleyville, 31 at Fayette, 33 at Coker, and 35 at Bessemer. We warm nicely, however, with a strong early March sun, and most places will wind up around 70 degrees this afternoon. Another beautiful day.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We will call it partly sunny tomorrow with a high in the low 70s, but moisture returns Friday and we will introduce a chance of widely scattered showers. The GFS is suggesting we might be looking at some kind of CAD setup Friday (cold air damming) with cooler air slipping in from the east. Not exactly a classic setup, but the GFS and the NAM are printing highs in the mid 60s, and we will probably need to pull our numbers down in the forecast package. Some communities near the Georgia border might hold in the 50s much of the day.

STORMY WEEKEND: Both the GFS and the ECMWF are coming in a little faster with our weekend storm system, suggesting the rain will be widespread during the day Saturday, then tapering off late Saturday night. If the 12Z runs confirm this trend, we will adjust the forecast a bit and hit the rain much harder during the day Saturday. Sure looks like we will see some beneficial rain, with amounts of one to two inches likely.

SPC has much of Arkansas under a severe weather risk on day three (Friday), but they have not identified a formal risk for day four (Saturday). Models are a little weaker with the upper trough, and with no really strong surface low and the weaker wind fields, hopefully we will get away with no severe weather. But, this is March and we will have to watch it closely.

Sunday will be noticeably cooler with a high in the 50s… some clearing is possible by afternoon as drier air works into the state.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS and the ECMWF are not as cold on Monday…. the GFS is printing a low of 38 for Birmingham, but no doubt some of the colder spots could easily see a freeze (like this morning). Monday and Tuesday will be dry, but showers or storms will return Wednesday with another cold front passing through. Colder and drier air slips back in here for the end of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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I have weather programs today at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster and South Shades Crest Elementary in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: wet weekend

Category: Alabama's Weather