Clouds and Rain

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Nice soaking rain overnight across Central Alabama with rainfall amounts generally around a half inch or so for many locations. Radar this morning showed a gap in the rain with the next round coming with a cold front now in the vicinity of Memphis that stretched from just southeast of Chicago all the way to South Texas. The front and the upper trough will move steadily across the area today and today bringing improving weather but somewhat cooler air to the area on Sunday.

Some of the storm today could be strong to severe especially along the Gulf coast area encompassing Southeast Mississippi and Louisiana, Southwest Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle. After I completed the video, I noted that SPC had expanded the slight risk area further northeastward into East Central Alabama. This is based primarily on forecasts, but I think the area could be a little too far north with the effects of the wedge limiting the northward extent for strong to severe storms. Main threat will be damaging wind and marginally severe hail, however, the wind profiles suggest some potential for isolated tornadoes.

Sunday will see improving weather with cooler temperatures. Look for highs only in the 50s Sunday. An upper zonal flow will mean dry weather for Monday with a slight warm up. Tuesday will also be dry and mild as a new upper trough moves our way from the southern Rockies.

That trough moves through the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday bringing another round of wet weather to Central Alabama. There is some potential for this to include a round of severe storms, however, the SPC did not outline a specific area due to low confidence in this event.

Between the two events, rainfall totals across Central Alabama will range from 3 to 4 inches in the northwest portion of Alabama to around 1 inch in the extreme southeast corner of the state. After a somewhat dry February, the rain will be welcome as it nibbles away at our rainfall deficit for the year – around 3 and a quarter inches at Birmingham.

Central Alabama will dry out on Thursday, however, wrap around moisture with clouds and some light rain will keep the day cloudy until late afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday, we stay dry as weak ridging pushes the next system a tad further north away from us. But by late Saturday, a new trough on the West Coast will begin its development with the main impact for us coming on Monday with another round of wet weather.

Looking further afield, the weather pattern stays active with yet another upper level trough around the 17th. But the GFS is suggesting a substantial ridge by the end of the forecast cycle on March 20th that could bring some warm, spring-like conditions to the Southeast.

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Thanks for staying tuned. I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video around 7:30 or so on Sunday morning. I’m hoping to head out to the Birmingham Amateur Radio Club’s Hamfest later this morning. It’s being held at the Zamora Temple close to the intersection of I-459 and I-20. Great chance to catch up with other hams as well as shop for radio bargains and various equipment. Stay dry and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather