Very Active And Interesting Weather Ahead

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Looks like we won’t have too many dull moments in the weather office through early next week, with two significant storm systems ahead and very changeable temperatures.

MID-WEEK SYSTEM: Today will remain dry and very mild. We are forecasting 76 today… that is 13 above normal, and within 3 degrees of the record high for today (79 set way back in 1896). Lots of sunshine.

Tomorrow southerly winds will kick in, and moisture levels will increase during the day along with cloud cover. A few showers could break out tomorrow afternoon, but the primary event will come tomorrow night as a strong cold front and the associated upper trough get closer. Sure looks like the primary line of storms will blow through here sometime between midnight tomorrow night and 8:00 a.m. Thursday.

SPC has now defined a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow night for about the northern half of Alabama. The 0 to 3 km helicity value does ramp up to 181, but the surface based CAPE (instability) is only 348 j/kg (based on the NAM)… you really like to see CAPE values over 1,000 for a significant chance of severe weather. So.. I am not totally convinced we will have a big severe weather problem tomorrow night and early Thursday with only marginal instability, but you know the deal… with thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, so we will be watching them closely just in case.

Unfortunately, models are trending drier with the system tomorrow night. The NAM, in fact, prints only 0.16″ for Birmingham. That seems way too dry; for now we will still indicate rain totals of one-half to one inch.

THANKSGIVING DAY: The rain moves out during the morning, and colder air moves in. Still looks like we fall through the 50s with a brisk northwest wind, reaching the upper 40s by mid to late afternoon. It will be a rather raw day.

FRIDAY: We will begin the day with temperatures near freezing and a clear sky. Lots of sunshine during the day with a high in the low to mid 50s.

MAJOR WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: A complex and very dynamic storm system will impact Alabama this weekend. Here is the way it looks now…

Rain breaks out Saturday, becoming widespread by the mid to late afternoon. Initially we will have an overrunning situation, where the warm moist air goes up and over a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. At the onset of the rain, evaporative cooling will kick in, and we are still looking at cold and wet weather for the Iron Bowl Saturday night. Rain is likely, with temperatures in the 40s.

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SUNDAY EVENING? The 06Z GFS shows the surface low, associated with a sharp, negative tilt upper trough, moving from new New Orleans Sunday morning to a point near Tupelo Sunday night. If this is correct, a warm front will surge northward across Alabama during the day Sunday, and we break out into the warm sector of the storm. That will set the stage for a significant severe weather threat Sunday afternoon and Sunday night if this is correct. We will really need to keep an eye on this in coming days.

You know my philosophy… take storm systems one at a time. So, lets get the mid-week system through here and we can focus on the weekend event Thursday and Friday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We really enjoyed having John Coleman on the show last night… talking about his days as the meteorologist with Good Morning America, and how he started The Weather Channel. And, we did discuss his views on “global warming”. A very interesting show.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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