Gorgeous Sunday, Severe Weather Tomorrow

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A gorgeous Sunday afternoon is in progress across Alabama. As you can see from the visible satellite photo in the image for the second straight day, one would be very hard pressed to find a cloud in the sky across the state. So, get outside and try!

A WARM ONE: Temperatures by early afternoon were soaring toward the 80F degree mark. Tuscaloosa was already there as of one o’clock and many other stations were following closely behind.

WINDY: Winds were beginning to pick up out of the south averaging 10-15 mph and gusting to over 20 mph at times. Those winds will continue to pick up through the afternoon and it will get quite breezy. A wind advisory is in effect for Central Alabama through 7 p.m. Those winds will increase the moisture over the state rapidly over the next 12 hours.

INCREASING HUMIDITY: Already, there is quite a moisture gradient across the South. The dewpoint at Anniston was 41F at noon, while at Birmingham was 45F and Tuscaloosa was 54F. In Mississippi it was 64F at Natchez. In the deeper moisture impressive fields of cumulus clouds had formed over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, moving up the Big Muddy. See the moisture gradient and surface isobars in the lower left panel.

MONDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: It will remain breezy through the overnight but tomorrow will be downright windy with southerly winds averaging 10-25 mph gusting to over 30 mph. We will start out in the upper 50s tomorrow morning. There should be a good bit of sunshine during the morning hours and temperatures will warm into the upper 70s. The warm temperatures and moisture will allow instability levels to become moderately high. But a capping inversion should keep a lid on things until late afternoon, when a cold front will begin approaching from the northwest. The front will be preceded by a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms that will pass during the evening hours.

We will watch for the potential that a few individual supercell storms could form just ahead of the main line. Those would have the best chance for producing tornadoes. The main threat with the line of storms will be damaging winds, although given the fairly decent low level shear could result in a few isolated tornadoes along the line. The good news is that the cap will be working in our favor during much of the day and the surface low will be very far to the north.

Both these factors should limit widespread severe weather especially during the day. But everyone should pay close attention to the weather throughout the day and overnight on Monday to see how this system unfolds. It is spring in Alabama and we have to remember to expect the unexpected. The SPC does have much of Alabama included in a high end slight risk outlook for severe weather for tomorrow. Look at the 30% probability for severe weather area on the top left panel of the image. That means that there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of every location in that area. This is the upper end of a slight risk in categorical terms from the SPC.

The front should sweep through the state overnight taking the severe weather threat with it and setting the stage for some mostly benign weather through midweek.

Category: Alabama's Weather