Damaging Wind Event Possible Later Today

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY: Seems like just about every year we have some wild weather on either April 3 or 4, so having a severe weather threat this time of the year is nothing unusual.

THIS MORNING: Dallas/Fort Worth is getting slammed with a big cluster of severe storms early this morning as I write this, and convection will continue to increase and move in our direction. The day will be warm and windy with a high in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Severe storms will arrive in Mississippi by midday, then moving into Northwest Alabama by mid-afternoon.

MODERATE RISK: Our pals at the Storm Prediction Center have a moderate risk of severe weather up for the far northwest part of Alabama, and back into all of North and Central Mississippi along with West Tennessee. A slight risk (their standard severe weather risk) surrounds that, and includes all of Alabama. Within the moderate risk, there is a 45 percent chance of severe weather (mostly damaging straight line winds) within 25 miles of any given point, which is very significant. The good news is that the tornado threat is only 5 percent within 25 miles of a point.

No doubt the primary risk with this event will be from damaging winds along a QLCS (quasi linear convection system, or squall line). While it is certainly possible we will see a tornado warning or two, especially over Mississippi, the winds as you go higher are unidirectional as the main surface low is up in Canada, which should eliminate a big tornado problem for Alabama. But, the damaging wind problem could be fairly widespread.

TIMING: See the Weather Xtreme video for the RPM model output, which is a high resolution model that does a pretty good of timing events like this. The storms should enter Northwest Alabama around 3 p.m… reaching the I-59 corridor (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden) around 6 p.m.. and finally extreme East Alabama around 9-10 p.m. So, our main window for severe storms will be from 3 until 9 p.m, with the threat ending quickly from the west as the storms move along.

Rain amounts of 1 inch are likely; the fast motion of the line will limit the overall rain totals and prevent a flooding problem, although some brief, localized flooding issues are possible as the line moves through.

FROST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING: Tomorrow will feature a clearing sky, and we turn much cooler. Much of North Alabama won’t make it out of the 50s with a cool northwest breeze. Then, early Wednesday with a clear sky and light wind, most places will drop into the mid 30s with potential for frost. The colder valleys across North and Central Alabama will have a chance of dipping below the freezing mark, so if you planted early, you will need to protect your garden if you have something that will be harmed by frost.

REST OF THE WEEK: We warm to near 70 Wednesday afternoon, and Thursday will be sunny with a high in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture returns Friday, so a few showers could break out in scattered spots, but nothing widespread is expected thanks to ridging aloft nosing into Alabama from the Gulf. Friday will be warm with a high in the low 80s.

WEEKEND PEEK: Warm is the word. Looks like highs in the low, maybe mid 80s Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. There will be enough moisture for a few isolated showers, but most places will be dry thanks to the upper ridge over the Gulf Coast states.

Looks like the next decent round of showers and storms will come around Monday of next week, but the main upper support will be well to the north of Alabama.

See the Weather Xtreme video for long range/voodoo land ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will attempt to record this week’s show tonight at 8:30… let’s hope the severe weather will be out of here by then. Weather educator Mike Mogil of How the Weather Works will be the guest.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

Stay tuned to the blog for running updates on the Alabama weather situation today and tonight… if time allows I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video by early afternoon. I have a weather program this morning at Meadow View Elementary School in Alabaster… enjoy the day!

Tags: Severe Weather

Category: Alabama's Weather