Very Changeable Weather Ahead

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The active wave pattern will continue across North America for the foreseeable future, so expect frequent weather changes in the next two to three weeks. We won’t have too many dull moments in the weather office.

TOMORROW AND THURSDAY: The trailing trough from a vorticity maximum passing well to the north of Alabama could trigger a few widely scattered showers tomorrow; it looks like the best chance of those will actually come during the morning hours from around 6:00 until 12:00 noon. The moisture will be very limited, so rainfall amounts, if any, will be light and spotty.

A stronger wave will impact Alabama on Thursday with periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm in spots. The 12Z run of the NAM is pretty aggressive with this system; now printing 1.07″ for Birmingham. The GFS is drier with 0.56″, and is probably closer to the truth.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday still looks dry as we will be in-between systems, but the next wave rolls in here over the weekend. The GFS is a little faster on the 12Z run, and hints the best chance of rain will come from about 3:00 p.m. Saturday through 3:00 a.m. Sunday. The rain output from this system should be in the one-half to one inch range, and once again a few thunderstorms could be involved. Severe weather doesn’t look especially likely with very limited instability.

Sunday will be a cold and blustery day with strong north winds and temperatures struggling to get out of the low to 40s.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY: The weather still looks cold and dry; the trend is toward colder temperatures. The 12Z GFS is now showing highs only in the 40s on these days with lows down in the 20s.

LONG RANGE: Deep into voodoo country, a series of significant waves shows up through early January. There is absolutely no way of resolving details of these waves, but the December 28-29 system still shows up nicely, and it looks like an active and fun period to watch the weather here in Alabama and across the nation.

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