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Summer-Like Again Today

| May 11, 2011 @ 6:12 am | Reply

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HAZY SUNSHINE: Today will be much like yesterday; hot for May, and dry with a good supply of hazy sunshine and a high around 90. And, while we stay dry, we will be watching radars to the west, where severe weather is likely over the Southern Plains; SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather later today and tonight for a small area of Oklahoma and Kansas along and west of I-35.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The big upper trough out west begins to lift out tomorrow, and the upper ridge over Alabama begins to break down. Still, most of the day here tomorrow should be dry with just an outside risk of a shower late in the day. Active storms will continue to the northwest of Alabama, where severe weather is possible across much of Arkansas and Missouri.

The surface front will approach Alabama Friday, and SPC has introduced a slight risk of severe weather for much of Mississippi and extreme Northwest Alabama Friday afternoon. Let’s clearly say here if severe storms do form, the main risk will be from hail and gusty winds; tornado parameters are very, very low. In terms of timing, it looks like the main window for showers and storms will come from mid-afternoon Friday into Friday night. Rain amounts should be 1/2 inch or less for most places.

UNSETTLED WEEKEND: The 00Z GFS is more aggressive with rain for Alabama on Saturday; it shows a double barrel type upper low, with the first one impacting the state as the weekend begins. Still, even if this solution is correct, it won’t rain all-day, but some rain is likely, and maybe a little thunder as well due to the colder air aloft making the air unstable. We will have to maintain at least the chance of a few showers on Sunday as well. The weekend will be cooler with highs dropping back into the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The second part of the upper low moves right over North Alabama Monday, so it should be a cool day with a chance of showers. We might even hear of small hail in the heavier showers due to the cold air aloft associated with the ULL. More than likely, we won’t see 70 Monday with a mostly cloudy sky and that risk of showers. The ULL moves east of Alabama Tuesday as drier air takes over, and the rest of the week for now looks dry with a warming trend.

LAND OF VOODOO: Still no evidence of any serious severe weather setup for Alabama through the rest of May, but that could change, of course, with little skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days. At the end of the GFS forecast period a strong 5880 meter 500 mb ridge is over us which could suggest hot and dry weather; see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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I will be speaking at the Oaks at Parkwood this morning, and then I have a weather program at Gate City Elementary School in Birmingham. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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