Hot Is The Word

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PERSISTENCE: I wish I could tell you our weather will turn cooler and we will get widespread rain, but it simply isn’t going to happen anytime soon. No need to get cute and try to define any serious day to day weather changes through the weekend as the strong upper ridge goes nowhere, so basically look for the same kind of weather for the next seven days across our state. Hot humid days with hazy sunshine, and only isolated afternoon showers and storms at best. The chance of any one neighborhood getting rain today and tomorrow will be only about one in ten, with slight better odds by the end of the week and the weekend. The warm air aloft associated with the ridge will keep most communities high and dry.

HEAT MACHINE: The dry conditions and lack of soil moisture is a real problem; the sun doesn’t have to work on evaporating soil moisture, and accordingly it can put all of it’s muscle into heating the ground, which in turn heats the air. We really need some help from the tropics… best thing we could see now is a weak tropical storm, tropical depression, or even a tropical wave that would sit up here and give us a soaking rain for a few days.

TROPICS TODAY: Unfortunately, we see no help from the tropical Atlantic basin in the short term with rain. The disturbance over the Caribbean this morning is totally disorganized due to strong southwest winds aloft, and I don’t expect this to get any better organized as it drifts to the north. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet, which is what you expect this early in the season.

LONG RANGE: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for long range thoughts… but there is nothing on global model runs to suggest any serious change through late June. Of course, changes that really determine the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and heat levels are almost impossible to detect on synoptic scale maps this time of the year, as you know.

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Tags: hot

Category: Alabama's Weather