Dry and Cool
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The weather was quite nice yesterday even if temperatures were mainly into the upper 50s for highs. The trend as we look at the upcoming week is for colder weather with some uncertainty still in what will happen Wednesday night and Thursday. But for today, a mix of sun and clouds is on tap as a short wave zips by. It would appear that the lower atmosphere is a bit too dry for any rain to fall from the passing clouds. The passing clouds will result in a variable forecast with some sun and some periods of overcast. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid and upper 50s again. It will also be breezy today with a stout northwest wind at 10 to 18 mph.
The work week starts out dry with good weather for Monday and Tuesday, but temperatures will continue to trend colder as a long wave trough shapes up across the eastern half of the country.
The real issue for forecasting comes late Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS is settling into a solution with a low traveling eastward along the Gulf coast. However, the low appears to be a bit weaker than some of the previous runs, but the low track is sure favorable for possibility of winter weather somewhere across the Southeast. There could still be issues with the strength of the low – if it is stronger than the GFS suggests today, the threat for winter weather goes up. As the GFS currently presents, it would appear that there is not a serious threat of anything more than a little light snow or flurries. The 850 millibar temperatures remain at or slightly above the freezing mark until the moisture is almost completely out of the area. But I’ve said this before, the real solution is in small scale elements like the exact track of the low and the strength of the low, so this situation will continue to bear watching as the whole scenario unfolds this coming week.
After the low gets by and works it’s way up the East Coast, we dry out and stay cold with morning lows in the 20s and highs generally in the 40s. This storm appears likely to create some real winter issues for those along the Mid-Atlantic coast for the latter part of the week.
The overall longer range pattern suggests a more zonal flow with the westerlies actually shifting further north. This pattern should return Central Alabama to a more seasonal to above normal situation with a well established southwesterly flow. Along with the warmer weather, there is the possibility of some rainy periods.
Thanks for tuning in to the Weather Xtreme Video. I hope you have a great Sunday. James Spann will be back with the next edition bright and early on Monday morning. God bless.
-Brian-
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