Click here to get Disney On Ice tickets | October 19-22 at Legacy Arena

MCS Presents Forecast Challenge Today

| June 26, 2011 @ 7:27 am | Reply

The latest edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme Video on iTunes by clicking here.

The heat continues as Central Alabama remains on the eastern edge of a big ridge currently centered over Texas. The big forecast challenge for today is trying to determine what, if any, impact the large MCS (Mesoscale Convection System) now moving through North Central Tennessee will have on us. It is unlikely that the MCS will simply move or propagate southward. Instead, it is likely to lay out a boundary that will become the focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms in the heat of the afternoon. So where will that boundary be by say 3 pm? That is a big challenge. Based on current radar, it seems likely that the boundary would be somewhere in the northern third of Alabama, somewhere between Birmingham and Huntsville. This is the kind of challenge where you just have to say, “Stay tuned!!”

But the heat will remain with us with most locations getting into the mid 90s for highs before any showers actually fire up. I recorded a high of 95 at my house yesterday, but I got very lucky with one of the few showers moving over me and providing 37 hundredths of an inch of rain. Oh, yes, I was driving home from The Summit around 6 pm and the lightning was spectacular, many of the lightning strokes coming outside of the rain area.

We will remain on the edge of the upper ridge for the first half of the week, thereby keeping isolated to scattered showers in the forecast. But starting on Wednesday, the ridge builds into Alabama from the west suggesting that showers could become more scarce. The ridge builds into the state into the weekend, but finally shows signs of edging back west on Sunday when a trough slides across the Great Lakes and nudges the ridge a little to the west. This will open the way for a few more shower possibilities.

SPC has outlooked North Alabama for a slight risk today and again on Day 3, Tuesday. The main threat will be hail and damaging wind. One inch hail was reported yesterday with the storm in Shelby County at the Galleria. Rainfall amounts will continue to be spotty with the potential for some heavy downpours which could result in isolated amounts of one inch or a bit more.

Tropics remain quiet. An wave is moving ashore from the western Caribbean, so nothing is expected to develop in the near time frame. The wave could emerge into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico where conditions appear more favorable for possible development.

As suspected yesterday, the long range projections have changed completely. The GFS is now suggesting a continuation of ridging across the southern tier of the US from Southern California to Florida. This would keep us in a pattern of daily isolated showers.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Thanks so much for staying subscribed to the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann should be back with the next edition first thing Monday morning. Stay tuned to the Blog for later updates as we watch the development of the MCS to our north. Have a great day and Godspeed.


For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.