Harvey Forms; Irene This Weekend?

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HOT, HAZY WEEKEND: Not much change in our weather through early next week. Hot, hazy days with a mix of sun and clouds and the daily risk of widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 92-95 degree range… very routine for August in Alabama. Again, we will have to watch for any potential surprise MCS (mesoscale convective system) rolling in from the northwest, but no evidence of any issues this evening.

TROPICAL ACTION: Tropical Storm Harvey formed in the western Caribbean today… it features sustained winds of 40 mph, and will skirt the coast of Honduras tonight, ultimately moving into Belize tomorrow night or early Saturday. The main issue with Harvey will be heavy rain and a flooding threat over Central America.

IRENE? The wave east of the Leeward Islands looks very organized this afternoon, and should become Tropical Storm Irene at some point this weekend. Models are in good agreement this afternoon… bringing the system to Hispaniola in about 84 hours. We all know the terrain of that island can really disrupt the low level circulation of tropical systems… so it remains to be seen how it will emerge.

Be watch and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the global model output in the medium range on Irene. The GFS and the ECMWF are actually in pretty good agreement now; both show a potential landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Destin and Cedar Key on August 28, perhaps as a significant hurricane.

But, that remains pure voodoo at this point as there is no skill in forecasting the intensity or exact track of a tropical cyclone more than 5 days in advance. I still think this might be more of an East Coast runner; we will know much more by early next week.

JOSE? Yet another strong wave is in the far eastern Atlantic; this has potential to become Tropical Storm Jose in coming days, but a weakness in the ridge north of the system should mean a northwest flow toward higher latitudes, and a recurving path that would not impact the U.S. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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I had a great time today at the Fairfield Nursing and Rehab Center… a great crowd and some very nice people…. thanks so much for the invitation.

My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. Monday… the internationally beloved meteorologist, Brian Peters, will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Tags: tropics

Category: Alabama's Weather