Tropical Storm Likely For The Gulf By Friday

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EYES ON THE GULF: Tropical weather systems can be good, and bad. Good in that they can bring beneficial rain, but bad when they become hurricanes and bring the threats of flooding, storm surge, and other issues. We hope for more good than bad with the tropical system in the Gulf as we approach Labor Day weekend.

THIS AFTERNOON: First off, we note a few isolated showers over the eastern half of Alabama this afternoon. The showers are small and very widely separated. Most places are experiencing a hot hazy afternoon on this last day of meteorological summer with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Tuscaloosa is the exception, where they have soared to 99 degrees at 2:00.

The weather won’t change much through Friday… with hot hazy days and just the risk of isolated showers during the peak of the daytime heating process. Highs will hold in the low to mid 90s.

OUR WEEKEND: The weather will be determined by the tropical system in the Gulf, which should be Tropical Storm Lee by Saturday. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and complete details.

For now, we will keep Saturday relatively dry for the northern half of the state with only isolated showers. Then, we will bring in higher rain chances Sunday and Monday as the tropical moisture moves northward, and a cold front approaches from the north. This could be a setup for very beneficial rain for much of the state if this combination comes to pass, but the intensity and location of the tropical system will be the key. Just keep in mind our forecast will be very changeable over the next few days.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND ON THE COAST: Could be very wet as Lee develops. The GFS suggests Lee will hover just south of Mobile Bay Saturday and Sunday, and if this is correct heavy tropical downpours could bring flooding issues to the Alabama and Northwest Florida Gulf Coast. But again, we note the NAM has Lee closer to the Texas coast with the heaviest rain over Louisiana and Mississippi, so nothing is carved in stone at this point. But, clearly there is substantial risk of wind and rain along the Alabama and NW Florida coasts this weekend. Keep in close touch with the latest Gulf of Mexico developments.

HURRICANE LEE? We also should point out a few of the early model runs are bringing Lee to hurricane strength over the weekend. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be required for parts of the Central Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

NEXT WEEK: Lee should begin to move northeast out of the region by mid-week, with rain diminishing on Tuesday, followed by cooler and drier continental air Wednesday and Thursday.

KATIA: Tropical Storm Katia should become a hurricane tonight in the Central Atlantic. No change in the forecast; Katia should be well north of the Leeward Islands over the weekend, and the hurricane is expected to recurve well east of the U.S. next week. The one potential issue is Bermuda as that island is close to the forecast track.

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I enjoyed speaking to a large group of Alabama Power employees this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: tropical storm

Category: Alabama's Weather