Busy Days In The Weather Office
An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…
The folks over in our newsroom have to love us… I sent them a note last night warning that we might have severe weather issues while they are covering the results of the “Super Tuesday” primary in Alabama and across the nation. We will have to learn to “play together nicely” if we do wind up having dealing with a severe weather event.
Lets break it down on a timeline….
TODAY AND TONIGHT: I don’t expect any severe weather issues today, although some thunder is certainly possible this morning as a warm front moves northward through Central Alabama. The best chance of rain today will come from now through the lunch hour; there will be very few showers this afternoon and tonight. In fact, the sun might pop out this afternoon, pushing temperatures to near the 70 degree mark. Rain amounts this morning should be in the one-quarter to one-half inch category.
TOMORROW: I really think most of the daytime hours tomorrow will be dry, with temperatures soaring to near record levels. We will rise into the mid 70s, close to record levels for early February. Birmingham’s record high for tomorrow is 76 degrees from 1927, and we will be very close to that. Winds will also begin to pick up, gusting at times to 30 mph. Severe storms will break out tomorrow afternoon to the west of Alabama, and a few of them could move into West Alabama by mid to late afternoon.
TOMORROW NIGHT: This is our key period for the chance of severe weather in Alabama. SPC has much of North and West Alabama under a moderate risk of severe storms, with a slight risk elsewhere. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the associated graphics with this discussion.
As always with early season systems like this, the big question is instability. No doubt there will be surface based instability available this time, but just how much remains to be seen.
Here are some maximum surface based CAPE values for Birmingham tomorrow night from various models:
WRF: 38.8 j/kg
NAM: 250.8 j/kg
GFS: 478.2 j/kg
The GFS is the most unstable, and is most likely closest to being correct based on projected surface temperatures tomorrow afternoon. But, you really like to see those values over 1,000 j/kg for a big event, and I have seen many a “severe weather bust” in February based on the lack of good instability. So, before we get caught in way too much hyperbole in talking about this event, we really need to watch the forecast soundings, and the associated positive areas on them.
All other parameters, low level shear, jet structure, etc., look very favorable for severe storms.
BOTTOM LINE….
*The best chance of severe weather in Alabama will come from 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday.
*The greatest chance of tornadic thunderstorms will come over Northwest Alabama tomorrow evening, from 6:00 until 9:00 p.m.
*A long squall line will move through tomorrow tomorrow night with potential for damaging winds; the greatest chance of widespread damage will be along and west of I-65.
*Even though the storms should be weakening as they move into East Alabama after midnight, they still could produce strong winds in a few spots.
WEDNESDAY: The rain will taper off during the morning, temperatures will fall into the 40s, and stay there for the rest of the day.
The weather will be cool and dry on Thursday, Friday, and over the weekend.
VOODOO LAND: No sign of any serious blasts of Arctic air in the 7 to 15 day period as a zonal flow sets up across North America. There should be one or two decent rain events along the way.
STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues! This week we will be at the Anniston City Meeting Center at 7:00. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record an all new episode tonight… it should be posted by 10:00 or so. Dan Satterfield of WHNT in Huntsville will be our guest.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
I will be speaking at Berry Middle School, and Oak Mountain Elementary school today… then into the office where I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
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