A Warm Day Before Some Rain

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Wow, yesterday was a great Fall day for Central Alabama with a cool start, lowered humidity, and a warm afternoon! Looks like today will be a close copy of yesterday, just a tad warmer with the prospects for some clouds invading the area this afternoon and tonight. A cold front should bring some rain chances to Central Alabama overnight and into Monday. I think Monday is really our best shot at getting some rain.

All of this thanks to a large closed low that was meandering just southwest of Chicago this morning. The closed low will gradually shift eastward today and Monday helping to push a cold front through the area. I think the trough axis will get by us late Monday, which should bring improving weather to us for Tuesday and dry weather for the rest of the week. Dry weather which will also be cooler again as we come under a strong northwesterly flow.

Monday the rain will come in the form of showers, so not everyone will get rain. Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the half inch to three quarter inch range. We may see some thunderstorms, too. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk outlook drawn to our northwest from about Dyersburg, TN, to Texarkana. The main threat should be hail and damaging wind.

A strong short wave will help push that closed low off to the northeast setting up a fairly deep trough over the eastern half of the country. This will keep us in a northwesterly flow pattern meaning that from Wednesday through next weekend should provide us with some great Fall weather – more of those cool mornings and mild afternoons.

Tropics remain somewhat active with Opheila and Philippe, neither of which is particularly strong. Both storms are expected to remain in the Atlantic with the only threat coming to shipping.

Long range forecasts bring a major change to the overall pattern across the country. As we head into October, the GFS is suggesting first a ridge and then a very flat, zonal flow pattern by the 5th. This represents a fairly substantial shift from previous forecasts, so I am somewhat skeptical of it. However, it is that time of year for us to be quiet weather-wise, so it could be right. But it is voodoo!!

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. Don’t forget the upcoming National Weather Association national conference on October 15th. Check out the web site at www.nwa2011.com for all the information. James Spann will be back with the next video first thing Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather