From the NWS Birmingham…

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.UPDATE…MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM…TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A WATCHING AND WAITING MODE HERE IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA…WHILE AN APPARENT MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK OCCURS TO OUR
WEST. 00Z BMX UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS CENTRAL ALABAMA IS STILL LARGELY
CAPPED…WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE 21Z FLIGHT.
THE CAP IS OBVIOUSLY LESS OF A FACTOR THE MORE NORTH AND WEST YOU
GO…BUT TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE (GEOGRAPHICALLY) THE SIGNIFICANT
CAP ENDS IS ONE OF MAIN QUESTIONS CURRENTLY.

LOOKING AT LATEST MESOSCALE CHARTS FROM SPC WEB PAGE…IT APPEARS
THAT NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF COUNTY WARNING AREA IS PRIMED FOR
SEVERE…BUT STILL HAS AT LEAST ONE MISSING INGREDIENT (MOST LIKELY
LIFT… AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT) FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. SBCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG…0-3 KM SRH OF 300+
M2/S2…AND COMPOSITE INDICES ALL SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS FROM
PICKENS AND TUSCALOOSA COUNTY NORTHWARD — IF (AND A BIG IF) STORMS
WERE ABLE TO FORM OR MOVE INTO THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUTIOUSLY WATCH THIS AREA…AS THINGS COULD GET LOTS BUSIER IN A
HURRY IF CONVECTION IS INITIATED WITHIN IT.

AS FAR AS THE FRONT AND THE ACCOMPANYING LINE OF STORMS GOES…WE
ARE A LOOOOONG WAY FROM SEEING THAT GET IN HERE. QUICK AND DIRTY
THUMBNAIL ANALYSIS PUTS IT INTO OUR WESTERN BORDER JUST AFTER 1
AM…JASPER/TUSCALOOSA/DEMOPOLIS JUST AFTER 3 AM…METRO BIRMINGHAM
AND SELMA AREAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM…ANNISTON TO MONTGOMERY BETWEEN
5 AND 6 AM…AND AUBURN/TROY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST OF THERE AFTER
SUNRISE. REMINDER THAT THIS IS A QUICK AND DIRTY EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT MOVEMENT…YMMV.

DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET. WHILE ONE MAY BE TEMPTED TO
AUTOMATICALLY THINK THAT “LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING” WOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING STORMS…IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS STILL QUITE A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM THAT IS FULLY CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WELL INTO AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

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