Slight Risk Continues

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The new SPC convective outlook came out at 10:30. It still has most of Alabama outlooked for the standard “slight” risk of severe weather today. You can see it in the larger panel above.

On the left panels you see the current warnings and watches. A severe thunderstorm warnings was just issued for Kemper, Lauderdale and Newton Counties.

The chances of severe weather are small, about a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of points in the risk area and 15% for winds of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of points in the risk area.

The greatest threat is over areas south of I-20, where dewpoints are in the 60s. CAPEs south of US-80/I-85 are now between 500-1,000 j/kg.

The warm front is now north of I-20, but will have a hard time going much further to the north. Storms north of the warm front will be elevated and pose little to no severe weather risk. Storms along the warm front can become severe and will be watched. Further south, in the richer air, storms will have the best chance of becoming severe, especially if the sun can emerge from the clouds for awhile.

There are two tornado warnings to our southwest now, including one in southeastern Mississippi and one over southern Louisiana south of New Orleans. There are a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings now for southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. Lake Ponchartrain and the City of New Orleans are in the severe thunderstorm warning. The line of severe storms is now moving in on the Crescent City.

SKYWATCHER REPORTS
Report from Jemison in Chilton County showing both a temperature and dew point of 66. That’s 100% humidity.

Similarly, Thorby in Chilton County is reporting a temp of 67 with dewpoint of 66, while Muscadine has 64/64 with .02 inches of rain.

In northwest Alabama, Haleyville is well entrenched in the cooler air with a temp of 48. They have received 1.38″ of rain already.

Category: Alabama's Weather