Severe Weather Potential Tonight

The morning soundings have been in for a couple of hours now, and it appears that the forecasts are on track for a significant severe weather episode for late today and early Monday. In fact the latest water vapor imagery showed the latest GFS to be correctly positioning the upper trough in the vicinity of the Texas Panhandle.

Soundings from Jackson and Birmingham show a moisture-filled layer up to about 7,000 feet with an amazing dry layer above that. The winds on both soundings showed veering patterns confirming warm air advection is under way.

Forecasts from SREF model on the SPC site continue to show great helicity values with modest instability values. Those forecast values along with low level and upper level jet positions plus a trough expected to go negative tilt all fit well with the forecast of severe weather.

How bad will it get? This is not the magnitude of April 27th, but this event could produce a significant amount of severe weather including tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail. There is also a potential for flash flooding with the ground saturated from the recent rain. So as Bill noted below, this is an excellent time to get ready. Charge smart phones and make sure you have the right apps for getting notified. Is the battery in your weather radio fresh? Getting the warnings is critical to proper response and the saving of lives.

I’m sure much more information will be coming via the Blog, so stay tuned as this whole developing situation plays out.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather