Warming Trend Ahead

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There’s a warming trend ahead of us even as we start the day at one of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen in over a week or so. And we expect to stay dry through about Wednesday, however, model madness sets in so confidence in the forecast of the latter part of the week is very low.

High pressure over the Southeast US keeps us dry through Tuesday, but as the high moves eastward it allows moisture to return to our west. That together with a weak frontal boundary being dragged into the region will set the stage for scattered showers starting Wednesday and continuing into Thursday and perhaps beyond. The GFS is more limited on the precipitation than the ECMWF and the QPF folks seem to hedge their forecast toward the GFS with amounts less than about half an inch. This seems fairly reasonable to me, too, and with scattered showers not everyone will get wet on Wednesday or Thursday.

We’ll see temperatures climbing back into the 60s for highs as we head into Monday and Tuesday. Interesting to note that the average high for January is 53, but for this January we’ve seen an average high for the first 28 days of the month at 61.

This is where everything begins to diverge. Be sure to watch the video for a closer look at the model differences. Rest assured, though, my confidence in the forecast is not very high beyond Thursday. The GFS develops a sharp trough over the middle of the country while the ECMWF develops a deep but much broader trough over the eastern half of the country. Even with the relatively major differences in the patterns of the two models, they both suggest some colder temperatures as we head toward next weekend. Right now, I’m tending toward the GFS solution, but I’ll be watching to see which model changes in the next model run.

Yesterday the GFS was predicting a much colder look as we moved out into voodoo country. Well that colder look is gone in the latest model run replaced by a continuation of the nearly zonal, mild flow we’ve been dealing with for much of the month of January. I guess there is no real surprise here since dramatic model changes are really typical as we move out into week 2 of the forecast.

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-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather