Active Weather In The Days Ahead

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WARMING UP: After a seasonally cool weekend, the weather turns spring-like again across Alabama this week, which actually makes sense since meteorological spring begins Thursday. We rise into the mid to upper 60s today with a partly sunny sky.

MID-WEEK: Temps head for the low 70s tomorrow, and the day will feature more clouds than sun as moist air begins to return. Most of the day should be dry, although we might might mention an outside risk of an afternoon shower. To the west, a significant severe weather event could take shape late tomorrow into tomorrow night over Arkansas and some of the adjacent states.

We will bring in a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. While the main upper support will pass pretty far to the north, there will be some good instability involved this time, and SPC has roughly the northern half of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather. Shear values are marginal, so it seems the greatest risk could very well be from strong straight line winds, mainly with a squall line that will blow through here during the afternoon hours, or maybe even Wednesday night.

Looks like the main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. Wednesday… with the main risk coming from straight line winds with a line of storms ahead of the cold front. Just a marginal tornado threat, mainly over the Tennessee Valley.

THURSDAY: The front will lose it’s southward push, and should stall somewhere around U.S. 80, but for North Alabama the day looks dry, with a mix of sun and clouds. We stay mild with a high in the low to mid 70s. We should note Thursday is the first day of meteorological spring.

FRIDAY: Another upper trough will bring another threat of strong to severe storms to Alabama. You know the deal… I won’t get very specific about this threat until we get the Wednesday system out of here, but initially it looks like the main risk will come late Friday afternoon into Friday night, with potential for hail and damaging winds with the stronger storms. The tornado threat might be a little more significant than Wednesday’s event, but that isn’t clear just yet with conflicting model data. Otherwise, Friday will be windy and warm with a high in the 75 to 80 degree range.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday will feature a clearing sky, and we turn cooler with a high between 58 and 62 with a cool northwest breeze. Sunday will feature sunshine in full supply… we start the day in the 30s but rise into the 60s by Sunday afternoon.

The weather should stay dry into the first part of next week with a warming trend.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Still no sign of any seriously cold air, or late season winter weather mischief for Alabama through mid-March. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.

STORM ALERT 2012: We will bring our severe weather awareness show to Cullman tomorrow night… we will be at the Cullman Civic Center at 6:30; be sure and come early to get a good seat. You will see some very powerful stories about last year’s generational tornado outbreak on April 27.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather