Two Severe Weather Possibilities Ahead
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STORM ALERT 2012: Don’t forget we will be in Cullman tonight for our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama… the show begins at the Cullman Civic Center at 6:30; hope to see many of you there.
SHOWERS CONTINUE: A check of the radar early this afternoon shows large areas of light to moderate rain moving across Central Alabama. Nothing especially heavy, but some spots could see 1/2 to 1/2 inch on the high end through tonight. A little thunder is possible in spots, but the severe weather risk for this afternoon and tonight will remain well to the west of Alabama, in the broad zone from Memphis to Omaha. SPC has backed off on those 30 percent severe weather probabilities issued early this morning; now most of the slight risk has the standard 15 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point.
SEVERE WEATHER, ROUND ONE: The big upper trough out west will head for the Great Lakes tomorrow; the surface low should be near Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN by midday tomorrow with a trailing cold front. This system will bring a chance of severe thunderstorms to Alabama, mainly tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.
The 12Z model set continues to suggest the primary threat will come from damaging straight line winds with a line of storms ahead of the cold front; shear values remain marginal for tornado formation. The main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 4:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight. Otherwise, the day tomorrow will be mild and breezy with a high in the mid 70s.
THURSDAY: The front will stall out over North Alabama late tomorrow night, and we will be in a fairly moist and unstable airmass Thursday. There isn’t much dynamic lift for widespread rain, but we will need to mention at least some chance of a shower or storm during the day with a high well up in the 70s again.
SEVERE WEATHER, ROUND TWO: A more potent severe weather setup seems likely by Friday afternoon and Friday night with higher instability values (the 12Z NAM is suggesting surface based CAPE values could exceed 2,000 j/kg by 6pm Friday over the Tennessee Valley). Also, the surface low will begin at a point farther south with higher helicity values here as well, hinting that a tornado or two could very well be possible. Early indications suggest the main severe weather risk will come from about 4:00 p.m. Friday through 2:00 a.m. Saturday. But, we really don’t want to be too specific until we get the storms out of here late tomorrow night, then we can really focus on this event.
Take some time to watch the afternoon Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go with this discussion.
OUR WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS is faster with our Friday night system, and has all of the rain out of here by 6:00 a.m. Saturday. So, we will forecast a clearing sky Saturday… the day will be breezy and cooler with a high between 57 and 62. Sunday looks bright and sunny… we start the day in the 30s, followed by a high in the 60s.
NEXT WEEK: The weather stays dry Monday and Tuesday, but the GFS brings another robust system in here on Wednesday of next week with some risk of strong to severe storms. But, of course, we have to get rounds one and two out of here before we even think about this one.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.
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I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at Gadsden Middle School… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM tomorrow at 5:00 on ABC 33/40. Hope to see many you in Cullman this evening… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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