Warm Weather with Strong Storms Possible

***Please note, due to my obligations for the Honda Indy Grand Prix at the Barber Motorsports Park, I will be unable to do Weather Xtreme Videos this weekend. I will be posting a discussion each morning, just not a video.

Fog was fairly dense across Central Alabama this morning but shortly before 9 am, much of the fog had lifted into a low cloud deck. I expect to see some breaks in the clouds by later morning as we see temperatures climb into the lower 80s for highs today.

The big question for the weather forecast is the development of thunderstorms. Rainfall yesterday was pretty widespread, but rainfall amounts varied dramatically. The Birmingham Airport reported a total rainfall of 11 hundredths while my station in Helena registered 1.02 inches of rain.

While the main upper disturbance has moved passed us as evidenced by the rain and storms over Southeast Alabama, a weak disturbance at 500 millibars along with a pool of relatively cold air located over the mid-Mississippi River Valley is likely to lead to the development of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has outlooked an area encompassing a large area of the mid-Mississippit River Valley including nearly the whole northern half of Alabama. The impulse moving through the flow, the cold pool of air, plus the favorable positioning of the upper level jet could lead to the development of scattered severe thunderstorms. The main threats are likely to be large hail and damaging wind. As SPC noted, the threat is likely to be diurnally driven by afternoon heating with the greatest threat over the western portions of the slight risk area.

Sunday I anticipate some morning fog again with plenty of sunshine driving afternoon highs into the middle 80s. Record high for Sunday for Birmingham is 86 and we are likely to be very close to that.

An upper ridge builds in strongly on Monday and Tuesday which should be enough to suppress showers and keep us dry but warm. That changes Tuesday and into Wednesday with the approach of a strong upper low coming across the Central Plains with a surface low swinging a cold front into the Southeast late Wednesday and Thursday. This could be setting the stage for some severe weather, though SPC has not specifically identified an area due in part to model differences with this system. At this time, it does not appear that this is the kind of setup for a significant severe weather outbreak.

By the end of the week, Friday into the weekend, the upper trough moves off the Atlantic Coast and an upper ridge builds into the eastern half of the country. There appears to be no significant change in the warmth with highs during the week ahead staying in the 80s with lows around 60.

Long range projections suggest a substantial Eastern US trough around the 10th of April which could bring a welcome cool down for the eastern third of the country. The ridge comes back around the 12th with another trough flying through in the 13th/14th time frame.

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I expect to post another discussion Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather