Very Cold Next Week; Some Ice?

The Friday morning ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:

Let me say up front that I am sure what I write in coming days with make some people angry (why, in the world, I don’t know; life is too short to get your feathers ruffled by what some weather guy writes on a blog!)… but let me assure you my purpose here is simply to tell you what we believe will happen with our weather during the next 7 to 16 days. Whenever we mention cold weather, and some risk of wintry precipitation, I am telling you my honest opinion, based on the best science I know and understand, what is going to happen. Nothing more and nothing less… I don’t write to make any one group of people happy or disappointed. So. having said all of that… here we go…

MILD THROUGH SUNDAY: Very little chance of significant rain through Sunday with very mild afternoons. I think there will be some decent intervals of sunshine along the way, and we should reach the low 70s on Sunday, very close to record levels for January in Alabama.

TO THE WEST AND NORTH: A very deep, cold upper trough will continue to move slowly through the western U.S. And, up north, bitterly cold Arctic air has crossed the Canadian border. Minot AFB, North Dakota right now is reporting 21 degrees below zero with a wind chill index of 42 below. I have great concern the GFS doesn’t understand the depth of this cold air, and we need to remember that as we look forward to next week and the arrival of that cold air here in Alabama.

A nasty ice storm will unfold over much of Oklahoma, and parts of Northwest Arkansas and Missouri over the next 48 hours. Major ice accumulations are likely with extended power outages possible in this region, and travel will become difficult if not impossible. Snow is likely where the cold air is deeper over West Texas, including places like Amarillo and Lubbock.

MONDAY: The band of rain and storms will finally move into Alabama Monday. SPC has dropped the severe weather risk, but we will have to watch for strong storms as it will be another low CAPE, high shear event, like the last two. Then, cold air advection kicks in Monday night as the shallow, leading edge of the very cold Arctic air moves into the state.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: I think the GFS MOS has no clue on these days. It is suggesting highs in the 40s; I say highs will be only in the 30s. And, with the front stalling over far South Alabama, and a continued southwest flow aloft, there is a very real chance of overrunning. Precipitation seems likely on Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. And, I do believe there is a very real chance of some freezing rain and icing problems on the northern periphery of the precipitation over North Alabama during this time. I won’t even rule out a wave forming on the front, which would mean a more serious icing situation. At first glance the greatest risk of any icing problems would be along and north of U.S. 278, but possible as far south as I-20.

This is not voodoo land, this is within our seven day target. Needless to say, the forecast will be fine tuned as we go along here, but for now I think we will see highs in the 30s, lows in the 20s, and some risk of freezing rain north of I-20 Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday. Forget the run to run model differences; just look at the pattern. Stay tuned.

LONG RANGE: The pattern sure looks cold and unsettled through the rest of the month. A very cold upper trough over the eastern U.S., and an active southern stream undercutting it. If we get through January without one or two good snow or ice threats I will really, really be surprised.

J.B. Elliott and I sure enjoyed our visit to Jackson, Mississippi last night; I spoke to the local NWA/AMS chapter there. A very nice turnout and some great hospitality. We also enjoyed visiting with the Clanton Kiwanis club and the Chilton County Homebuilders at midday for a combined meeting; I spoke to that group on the way to Jackson. I think I gained five pounds during the day, but I won’t tell you what we ate. What we eat on road trips is highly confidential.

WEATHER PARTY: Visit our sister site for the latest weather news, WeatherParty.com… always some interesting reading over there. Thanks to everyone who helps us by submitting stories; you can do that by registering.

I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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