Gorgeous Easter Sunday

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It’s going to be a gorgeous Easter Sunday though we may see a few clouds in the sky. Probably not enough to keep highs from reaching the mid and upper 70s. And it looks like we are going to stay dry for the next week but there are some model differences around Friday and Saturday.

A weak and dry cold front will be moving through the area. That will bring a fresh northerly flow to the area and help to keep temperatures from climbing too much on Monday as highs dip back slightly into the mid 70s. Another weak and dry front follows that one on Tuesday, but the major player is the development of a deep trough over the eastern half of the country. This will bring a nice shot of cold air into the eastern half of the country. Wednesday is likely to be the coolest day with highs 65 to 70 while Thursday morning will probably be the coldest morning as we see the atmosphere go calm with good radiational cooling and the potential for some patchy frost. Even Wednesday morning with lows dipping down to near 40 we could see some patchy frost that morning, too.

But the warm up begins Thursday and extends into the weekend. An upper ridge comes over us and the GFS is suggesting it will be strong enough to hold off a deep trough over the southern Rockies. There are some model differences with the ECMWF. Like yesterday, the ECMWF develops precipitation for Friday and Saturday across the northern half of Alabama. Even the ECMWFs own upper progs continue to show a ridge, though the ridge is just not as strong as the GFSs ridge. I continue to think the GFS may have a better handle on this situation because I just don’t see the forcing for the precipitation the ECMWF is coming up with. So for now, and partially because it is so far out, I am keeping the forecast for next weekend dry.

SPC continues to monitor a severe weather threat that remains to our west with a slight risk for much of the next week focused in Texas and Oklahoma.

Looking well out into voodoo country, the GFS shows a glancing blow for a trough on the 18th that could produce some rain. A substantial trough on the 21st could be responsible for some severe weather. And that evolves into a chilly look once again around the 23rd with a fairly deep trough over the eastern US with a nice fetch coming from northwestern Canada into the Southeast US. But this is all voodoo. One nice note is that the coolish look continues to show up on the GFS.

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I hope you have a great Easter Sunday. James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather