Rain, Snow, Cold Ahead

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After a long look at the 12Z model data… I don’t think we need to change the forecast too much. The major snow issues will be from Abilene and Dallas/Fort Worth to Little Rock to Paducah to Indianapolis and on to Detroit and Buffalo. Some folks in this area will be hammered with well over 5 inches of snow. Here is a report from the Dallas NWS IM conference just received:

(2:51:41 PM) nwsfwd1: 9″ of snow measured on driveway in Lake Kiowa…9 miles SE of Gainesville…relayed by Cooke County EM (2:58:20 PM) nwsfwd1: Huge snowflakes coming down at NWS office in Fort Worth

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THE ALABAMA STORY: Periods of rain are likely tomorrow, with amounts of one-half to one inch. The best chance of thunderstorms will be over the southern half of the state; we note that SPC has added a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow for the southern quarter of Alabama. The risk also covers much of Florida, South Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas.

The rain should change to snow tomorrow night, initially around the Muscle Shoals area, then progressing to the southeast during the night. We still believe the best chance of accumulating snow will be over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama.

ANY ACCUMULATION? I still think one to two inches of snow can accumulate over Madison, Jackson, Marshall, and DeKalb counties of Northeast Alabama in the general time frame from midnight to 6 a.m. (early Saturday), mainly for high terrain (especially above 1,000 feet). To the south, one-half inch of snow is possible across Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee counties, mainly across high terrain. A dusting is possible as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.

I don’t expect any travel issues along the I-20 corridor; the ground is relatively warm, and surface temperatures will be a tad above freezing as the snow falls. There, however, could be some bridge icing over the Tennessee Valley Saturday morning where the cold air will be deeper.

The snow will end during the morning, but Saturday will be cold and blustery. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s with an icy northwest wind. Huntsville might remain below freezing much of the day.

Remember, March snow events are very tricky, and the forecast is subject to change. But, I think we are on the right track.

SUNDAY: After a sub-freezing start, we will warm up nicely, with a high in the upper 50s Sunday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: The big event next week comes on Thursday, when a dynamic weather system has the potential to produce strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama and the Deep South. We can’t be too specific, of course, until early next week.

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I had a great time today presenting programs on meteorology at Meadow View Elementary School in Alabaster, and Valley Elementary School in Pelham. Be looking for those kids on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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