Unsettled Weather

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

As we have all pointed out; this is a challenging forecast for Alabama for the next 36 hours.

RIGHT NOW: Showers and storms continue over the northern half of Alabama, but severe weather is not expected this morning. Rainfall amounts will vary a good bit, as the showers and storms are somewhat scattered. But, some neighborhoods will see a heavy downpour with thunder and lightning.

LATER TODAY: The morning showers and storms should diminish by midday as the lead wave moves to the east. We figure the sun will break out this afternoon, and if that happens the air will become rather unstable, with surface based CAPE values exceeding 1,500 j/kg in spots. This will mean some risk of scattered storms late this afternoon and this evening, but there is little upper forcing, so they will, most likely, be few and far between. But, any late afternoon storm could be strong to severe, based on the projected instability and shear values.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: I think the window is open for another round of storms late tonight, probably after midnight, as a second wave and the associated surface low approach. The models, however, keep a majority of this activity a little north of here, over the Tennessee Valley, as a capping inversion sets up across Alabama, which could keep a lid on things. But, we will need to watch the radar closely in the midnight to 8:00 a.m. period in case storms do develop southward.

By mid-morning, a dry line moves through with a gusty west wind and dropping dewpoints. This means much of the day tomorrow will be partly sunny and windy; we will warm well into the 70s in that dry air by afternoon. Some West Alabama communities might even touch 80. There also remains a chance of isolated storms along the dryline tomorrow afternoon over far East Alabama, near the Georgia border, and those could be severe if they can break through the cap.

BOTTOM LINE: We are dealing with an unstable atmosphere through tomorrow morning, but the the weather features that will create lift in the atmosphere are very subtle, making it hard for us to tell you exactly when and where the stronger storms will fire up. We will all just have to watch the radar closely.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: These days will be sunny; with a high Sunday in the mid 60s, followed by low to mid 70s on Monday.

NEXT WEEK: A very deep upper air trough will approach during the mid-week period. The latest GFS hints the best chance of strong to severe storms with this one will come from about 12:00 midnight Tuesday night through 12:00 noon Wednesday. Very impressive dynamics here… we will get more specific by Sunday and Monday as we get a good look at it.

VOODOO LAND: The 00Z GFS brings some pretty cold air down in here the following weekend, March 22-23. Remember, we can have sharp cold snaps into April.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

J.B. will keep the blog fresh with updates on the storms today… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Category: Uncategorized