Will Storms Make It Here Overnight?

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Tracking two areas of thunderstorms tonight on regional radars.

A long lived complex is over Central Mississippi northwest of Jackson tonight. It is pushing east southeast. It could affect areas from Sumter and Greene Counties through Hale, Perry and Dallas Counties. No warnings with this complex right now, but it has a long history of severe thunderstorm warnings all along its path from Arkansas. There has been redevelopment of this system on its northeast flank. It is an impressive mesoscale convective vortex. There is a severe thunderstorm watch ahead of this system across Mississippi, but this system should continue to weaken as it moves into Alabama, so significant weather problems are not anticipated. The SPC advises they do not anticipate issuing another watch into Alabama with this system.

Secondly, scattered strong thunderstorms are over Kentucky, moving into northern Tennessee ahead of a cold front that is moving southward. These storms appear to have weakened in the past couple of hours and this is supported by RPM model output. If you carry the output into the predawn hours, we could see more storms developing over eastern Alabama in the I-20 corridor toward dawn.

So, we can’t rule out a warning or two with two two current systems on the board overnight. The SPC does have a slight risk up through 7 a.m. for areas over the northern half of the state.

Additionally, storms will redevelop along and ahead of the front as it moves into Central Alabama Tuesday. It should be in the US-82/I-20 corridor by lunchtime and storms will be forming again about them. Can’t rule out some warnings with the storms that form tomorrow afternoon, but severe weather will not be widespread.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather