Warm and Dry Rolls Along

There will be no video this morning due to connectivity issues at my current location on Mt. Cheaha.

Central Alabama appears likely to be pinched between systems with dry and warm weather winning out in spite of the fact that we could really use some rain. So for the moment, the forecast remains essentially dry and warm as we watch the future motion of a couple of systems.

The major element in our pattern right now is the combination of surface high pressure centered over the East Coast of the US together with the upper ridge which has built much stronger across the eastern half of the country. A strong trough moving across Canada is still forecast to dampen the ridge into the Friday/Saturday time frame which could bring a weak front into the Ohio River Valley. Moisture remains sparse, however, for much of the Southeast, so even with a front at least nearby, there appears to be little reason to forecast more than isolated showers in the heat of the afternoon for Friday and Saturday.

To our south, moisture over the Florida Straits will drift northwestward. But it seems unlikely at this time that this moisture would get to us. After Saturday the upper ridge builds strong again just to our west, so that area of disturbed weather is not likely to reach us as long as the GFS is correct. The GFS is also potentially showing the development of what could be the fourth named tropical system off the East Coast of Florida around Sunday or Monday. While the ECMWF does not develop the system in the vicinity of Florida quite as aggressively as the GFS, the two models are in substantial agreement on keeping us warm and dry through the next seven days.

With the ridge very strong over the Central Plains, we stay dry but not terribly hot with a northwesterly flow pattern as the strong ridge stays just to our west with the Central Plains getting pretty hot.

In the tropics, Chris has formed in the North Atlantic but was moving well away from land. Over the Caribbean, an area of disturbed weather was expected to drift northwestward over the Florida Straits, Cuba, and extreme South Florida producing rain but conditions currently remain unfavorable for storm formation.

Severe weather potential across the country remains confined to the northern tier of the country along and ahead of the trough moving through southern Canada.

Voodoo country shows a substantial trough over the eastern US around July 2nd that could bring a front into the area with the ridge centered over eastern New Mexico. Fronts don’t usually make an appearance in July but it can happen and I hope so since it would bring good chances for rain. But the GFS suggests the summer ridge comes back around July 5th.

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I hope to resolve the connection issues, but at least I plan to post an updated discussion on Thursday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather