Gulf Coast Weather Thoughts

First off, thanks to all of the ABC 33/40 and Weather Company team members for allowing me some down time this week. The time off was needed and greatly appreciated.

HEADED TO THE BEACH? I have been inundated with beach forecast questions via social media since we have a potential tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. No way I can answer those questions using Twitter or Facebook… those platforms don’t allow for long form weather discussions you need in situations like this. That is why we always ask you to visit his blog. We have all the room, and the format we need here.

DEBBY IN THE MAKING: We are very confident the system in the southern Gulf, at some point, will become Tropical Storm Debby. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours (a cyclone is a broad term that includes a depression, tropical storm, or hurricane. But, this morning the system remains disorganized and is not a depression yet. The convection is well to the north and east of the center, making for a very ragged look. WHERE DOES IT GO? Steering currents are weak in the Gulf, and this will not be in a hurry to move over the next 3 to 5 days. And, it makes it just about impossible now to tell you the ultimate destination. Below is the latest model spread… An upper ridge over the southern U.S. could mean this winds up in Texas sometime next week, or an upper trough over the east coast could bring it toward Central Florida (the peninsula, NOT the panhandle). Unfortunately odds are very low that this brings any rain to the northern two-thirds of Alabama. But, just for fun, we note the GEMS (Canadian) now brings this thing into Southeast Louisiana. But, this is clearly an outlier and seems unlikely. But again, NOBODY knows the destination now. HOW STRONG? There is not a single model that brings this up to hurricane strength. Early season systems like this are mainly heavy rain producers… GULF COAST WEATHER: The main issue will be rip currents along the coast, from Dauphin Island west to Panama City… Red flags will be flying for the next several days, and I would suggest staying out of the ocean until conditions are calmer. In terms of weather, there will be increasing wind and seas as the Gulf system slowly gets it act together. Needless to say, actual weather conditions on the coast will all depend on the organization and movement of the Gulf system, which remains up in the air. For now, I would expect about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day through Monday from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s. Keep an eye on the blog this weekend and we will keep you posted on changes.

Tags: debby

Category: Tropical