No Westward Track for Debby

Big change in thinking from the NHC.

They now believe Debby will meander over the northeastern Gulf for the next few days, moving inland late in the week near Apalachicola.

This is a very low confidence forecast, but the westward track along the coasts of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi now doesn’t look likely.

Tropical storm warnings discontinued for Louisiana. Continue for the Alabama and Florida coasts.

Here is the latest info from the NHC:

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 205 MI…330 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI…165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ENGLEWOOD.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

Here is the official forecast track:

Here is the discussion from the NHC:

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS
ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW
TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL…WHICH HAS BEEN
FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO… NOW
HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN
MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT…I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT…BUT
NOT COMPLETELY…THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
GULF. HOWEVER…NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM…WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO…BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WATER…THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER…THE CYCLONE
WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND
THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.

Notes…

…Beach road closed between Navarre and Pensacola.
…1 killed, 10 homes damaged by tornado 2 miles NW of Lake Placid, FL. Tornado watch and many tornado warnings on Florida Peninsula today.
…6 inches of rain today in Tampa. They are just three inches short of breaking their record for wettest June.
…No truth to the rumor that the NHC “cone of uncertainty” has been renamed the “circle of don’t know” for Debby. It really is a big sphere.
…Serious flooding being reported in downtown Clearwater with water rescues underway and cars underwater.
…Indian Pass Highway impassable
…At least 11 reports of tornadoes in Florida today. Over 40 tornado warnings since yesterday there.

Category: Tropical