Eye On Tropical Storm Debby
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First off thanks to Ashley Brand, Bill Murray, Brian Peters, J.P. Spann, and J.B. Elliott for handling various duties in my place over the last week… the off time was needed and appreciated.
Let me encourage you to take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video… it has all of the graphics that go with this discussion and puts it all together.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Needless to say, anytime we have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, it tends to focus our attention there. But, we also have to keep an eye on the nasty heat ridge to the west; Hill City, Kansas hit 114 degrees yesterday. Here in Alabama, it was 103 in Tuscaloosa, 102 in Muscle Shoals, and 101 in Huntsville. Pretty nasty… but we note Birmingham’s average high for the month of June through yesterday is still only 87.3 degrees, which is below average.
DEBBY: The tropical storm is ill defined this morning, and not moving. The broad center is about 90 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida… the pressure is up a bit to 993 mb, and sustained winds have dropped to 50 mph. Most of the rain is well removed to the east and northeast of the center… this is a storm where it really doesn’t make too much sense to focus on the track of the center of circulation since the sensible weather is not close to that point.
It is unlikely that Debby reaches hurricane strength; most models show the system slowly weakening with time. And, there is better clarity on the track; the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS all carry Debby slowly eastward into the Atlantic in coming days. I expect NHC to adjust their forecast track to the east. The main threat from Debby will be heavy rain over the Florida peninsula and the threat of isolated tornadoes; one person was killed in Lake Placid, Florida yesterday due to a tornado.
Alabama will remain on the dry side of the system.
WEATHER ON THE COAST: The most significant rain should be from about Fort Walton Beach to the east over the next few days. Even there, in places like Destin and Panama City, the rain won’t be continuous, and the sun will peek out at times. Farther west, for places like Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, and Pensacola, the weather will be breezy with a mix of sun and clouds, and only a passing tropical downpour from time to time. Actually not that bad this week. And, we should mention NHC has dropped the tropical storm warning for the Alabama Gulf Coast.
But… ALL of the Gulf Coast will experience very rough surf and dangerous tip tides. Don’t be a bonehead and go in the water; there were water rescues throughout the weekend, and double red flags are flying.
We note the guys at HPC are showing a 5 day rain total of about two feet near Apalachicola; I think that is overdone. See the Weather Xtreme video for more.
FOR NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA: Unfortunately we just won’t get any really significant rain from Debby. Yes, I know a few spots saw a good shower yesterday, but most of the state was dry, and we stay mostly dry for the next 7 days. The weather will be sizzling again today with mid to upper 90s; Tuscaloosa could see a high of 100 again.
The good news is that the heat and humidity will back off tomorrow and Wednesday; highs drop into the low 90s with dew points lowering into the 50s. We will be well down in the 60s early Wednesday morning, and I fully expect some of the cooler spots across North Alabama to reach the cool 50s.
But, heat levels creep up again later in the week and over the weekend with upper 90s returning. Expect mostly sunny days, fair nights, and any afternoon showers will be hard to find.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… it will be live on Google Hangouts, and the produced version should be available late tonight on iTunes, Stitcher, and the web.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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