Mostly Dry Today; Storms Return Tomorrow

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COLD AIR DIPS INTO THE U.S.: Can’t help but look at the observations over Montana this morning in the wake of a strong cold front; the community of Conrad, Montana is reporting 36 degrees as I write this. Fall fans will have to love this, and we will be watching the leading edge of the cooler air as it drops south as it promises to bring an increased chance of rain to Alabama tomorrow.

But today looks generally rain-free with only a small risk of any one spot getting wet this afternoon or tonight. Today should be a bit warmer than recent days, with a good chance we will see 90 degrees. If that happens, it will only the 5th day in August with a high of 90 or higher.

STRONG STORMS TOMORROW: There will clearly be an increase in the number of showers and storms across Alabama tomorrow ahead of the cold front. In fact, SPC has put about the northern half of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather as some of the storms could produce hail and strong winds (the tornado threat is very minimal, however). Best chance of storms will come tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.

THE WEEKEND: Tricky forecast… the weather will all be determined by where the surface front is positioned. And, models are not in very good agreement. The GFS now shows drier air working into North/Central Alabama Saturday, but the NAM (a higher resolution model), shows the dry air only impacting the region near the Tennessee border. We will maintain a chance of scattered to numerous showers and storms on Saturday, but if you are in Huntsville or Muscle Shoals, you might get away with a dry day.

We will begin to lower the chance of rain on Sunday as the dry air slowly pushes south; the best chance of showers and storms Sunday should be south of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston). Highs over the weekend should be in the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like the northern counties of Alabama will enjoy lower humidity and cooler nights Monday and Tuesday; would be not be surprised to see many places reaching the 50s early Tuesday with a clear sky. Highs will be in the 80s with a partly to mostly sunny sky. We note the 00Z GFS is not really aggressive with moisture return at mid-week, and the model keeps the northern half of Alabama generally dry much of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

TROPICAL STORM GORDON: The new storm formed last night in the Central Atlantic; it is a high latitude system and will move east over the open water of the Atlantic; no threat to any land mass (perhaps skirting the Azores early in the weekend). The rest of the Atlantic basin remains rather quiet for now.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 5 to 7 hours of sun for the Gulf Coast today from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a high in the upper 80s; a few storms are possible today, but they will be widely spaced. Then, look for a general increase in the number of showers and storms along the coast tomorrow through Sunday with only 2-4 hours of sun each day. Still, the weekend won’t be a “wash-out”, but there is a good chance of you will have to dodge raindrops from time to time.

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I will be in Gadsden this morning doing a program for kids at the Gadsden Public Library; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather