Delightful August Weather

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NICE: We expect hot, humid, oppressive weather around here in August, but nothing like that right now. This is another delightful day, with ample sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures. Not a 90 in sight at mid-afternoon; temperatures are generally in the mid 80s.

REST OF THE WEEK: No change… just a very slow increase in moisture late in the week. We expect partly to mostly sunny days, and fair highs. Highs will be in the 87-90 degree range. Cooler spots should visit the 50s again early tomorrow morning, followed by low in the 60s early Thursday and Friday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: We will continue to mention just the chance of widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, otherwise the weekend should feature partly sunny days and fair nights; highs remain in the 87 to 90 degree range. Moisture levels will be higher, but there is no real dynamic forcing for widespread rain.

TROPICS: As you might expect in mid-August… things are getting busy… take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the details and graphics.

AL95: This is the system on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX. It is very close to being inland, and drifting west, so development here looks pretty unlikely. NHC has dropped the chance of development within 48 hours to only 20 percent.

AL96: The tropical wave behind TD 9 has a decent chance of slow development; it will move generally northwest into a position that will likely put it on a recurvature path, not impacting the U.S. mainland.

TD 9: This is the one that warrants most of the attention. We should point out that dry air continues to wrap into the circulation, and the system remains below tropical storm strength this afternoon as it moves west toward the Leeward Islands.

Sure looks like the dry air, and interaction with islands like Hispaniola, will prevent this from becoming a major hurricane in the short term. A good chance this one will struggle for a while.

Model agreement is good, and the system should be near the eastern tip of Cuba as the weekend ends. NHC has “Isaac” as a hurricane at that point, but I am not sure it will be that strong.

Climatology and the top 10 analogs suggest there is a high chance Isaac turns north somewhere around the southern tip of Florida early next week, with a potential run up the U.S. East Coast. Considering the general weakness in the upper flow and mean trough over the eastern U.S. this month, I think this idea has great merit. On this track, there would be no major impact on Alabama or the Central Gulf Coast (Panama City west to Gulf Shores).

However, we do note the ECMWF has Isaac as a major hurricane west of Tampa Bay toward the end of next week. But, this is an outlier for now. And, don’t forget the Euro did a horrible job with Tropical Storm Debby earlier this summer.

Just in… the 12Z GFS ensembles have shifted a bit west as well, closer to the ECMWF. But, don’t be surprised if it shifts east again. Very typical for a system that is in it’s infancy.

BOTTOM LINE: It is still WAY too early to call the U.S. impact track with TD 9, so stay tuned. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details. Everybody from the Florida Peninsula northward up the East Coast will need to keep a close eye on this one.

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Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather