Eye On Isaac

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ANOTHER REFRESHING MORNING: Once again the cooler spots are in the 50s across Alabama this morning as our “cool” August weather continues thanks to the upper trough over the eastern U.S. Fort Payne has dropped to 55, and our Skywatchers at Fayette and Concord report 58.

Our weather won’t change much through Friday with mostly sunny days and fair nights; humidity levels will slowly rise late in the week with warmer nights.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: There will be enough low level moisture to mention a chance of widely scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, but there is no real dynamic upward motion, so many places will stay dry. Look for a partly sunny sky both days with a high in the 87 to 90 degree range. Not much change for early next week, with the generally dry conditions continuing as the tropical mischief stays well east of our state.

TROPICS: Be sure and take a little time to watch the Weather Xtreme video, which has all of the graphics and details beyond this discussion.

Before we focus on Isaac, we should mention that the system behind it in the Atlantic should become Tropical Storm Joyce in coming days. That will be a higher latitude tropical system that should recurve in the open Atlantic, not impacting the U.S.

ISAAC: Isaac remains a rather minimal tropical storm this morning with sustained winds of 45 mph; the system will move over the Leeward Islands tonight, and has some chance of becoming a minimal hurricane over the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico tomorrow as it moves west/northwest.

Model agreement this morning actually is very good. Sure looks like Isaac will go right over the island of Hispaniola Friday, which should really disrupt the low level flow due to the mountains. A weaker system will emerge, heading for Cuba and the southeast tip of Florida. The NHC track has Isaac as a category one hurricane just south of Miami late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

From there, models are in good agreement that this will roll up the East Coast of Florida, with the system moving inland somewhere around South Carolina early in the week, or perhaps staying just offshore.

NOTES…

*As stated here yesterday, I am confident Alabama will not have any impact from Isaac as we will be on the dry side of the circulation. Sure looks like we stay mostly dry for the next seven days.

*I do not think Isaac becomes a destructive hurricane. The main impact will be heavy rain and potential flooding for the U.S. East Coast. And, there is a possibility the heaviest rain remains offshore. Of course, there will be very rough surf and coastal flooding along and north of the circulation center as it runs the East Coast early next week.

*The national media guys are drooling over death, doom, and destruction at the political convention at Tampa. Sure looks like Tampa will be on the drier side of Isaac; they could very well get some rain and wind, but I do not think this disrupts the event, despite what you hear.

*Nine out of the top 10 analogs are all Atlantic systems. Climatology just doesn’t support Isaac getting into the Gulf of Mexico.

*It is still very early in the game, and this forecast could change for sure. But, confidence is fairly high based on good model agreement and the analogs.

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Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather