A Fine Fall Weekend

| November 3, 2006 @ 5:49 am | 6 Replies


You can watch the morning edition of the Weather Xtreme video in the player above, or on iTunes. Take your pick!

A COLD NOVEMBER MORNING: Cold spots around Alabama at 5:00 a.m. (among the official reporting stations) are Fort Payne, Cullman, and Meridianville with 28 degrees. I am sure some of the rural valleys are even colder; J.B. will compile a full list of morning lows and post them here a little later. I have 34 at the moment at my place in northern Shelby County.

Today’s weather will feature a cobalt blue sky, with daytime temperatures about 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Most places will peak around 60 degrees today. Tonight will be cold again; temperatures will drop through the 40s during the high school football games. Some stadiums will probably wind up in the upper 30s by the fourth quarter.

THE WEEKEND: The weekend will be dry with a slow warming trend; we will reach the low 60s tomorrow, and mid 60s on Sunday. Lots of sunshine tomorrow; a partly sunny sky on Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: I really like the 00Z run of the GFS. I think it finally has a good grasp on the situation for the next 16 days in a very complex pattern. This run brings back the chance of rain on Tuesday of next week (Election Day). No severe weather, but a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm thanks to a passing short wave. I felt bad when I wrote the forecast package late last night that didn’t mention rain on Tuesday; trust me, showers will be included on Tuesday in the afternoon forecast update. Most of those showers move to the east Tuesday night, and at this point Wednesday looks dry.

NOVEMBER 10-17: All along I have said we have a great chance of two very dynamic weather systems impacting Alabama during this period, and the 00Z GFS brings home the bacon. Needless to say, we are in voodoo land, so all of this is sure subject to change, but I like the idea on that run. Here is what we are looking at:

NOVEMBER 10-11: Next Friday (a week from today), and the following Saturday (November 11 – the day of Storm Alert XTREME!), the GFS brings a very robust, negative tilt upper trough through there, which would set the stage of a round of heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms on those two days. If we break into the warm sector this could be a rough ride.

NOVEMBER 14-15: A phased, full latitude trough moves through here with rain and storms, followed by the coldest air so far this season. Could be severe weather setup in the warm sector. The cold air plunge on the model is very realistic considering the vast snow cover over the northern part of the continent and the amount of cold air up there now. Watch the video for the graphics.

And, on top of those two systems, the GFS at the end of the cycle (November 17) shows a major upper trough over the middle of the nation. Here in Alabama, we have shallow cold air in place, and a broad southwest flow aloft over the cold air. Hey, if this was January I would be thinking major ice storm. But, this is November so we think just rain.

All of this stuff beyond seven days is PURE speculation right now, but I suggest you hang on for a wild ride at mid-month!

SKYWATCHERS: Want to join our team of Skywatchers that report back to us in real time using instant message technology? Check out this site, and plan on attending Storm Alert XTREME at the BJCC on November 11!

Enjoy your Friday; I will have the next Weather Xtreme video loaded by 3:30 this afternoon!

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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