Uncertainty Remains
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As always prior to a major weather event, I ask that you take a little time and watch the Weather Xtreme video, which is a treasure trove of information with graphics and thoughts on what might happen in Alabama and across the Deep South. We are bombarded with questions, and this is where you get most of your answers.
One point…. it really doesn’t make sense to ask about any specific county or city and the impact of Isaac. We are still in the process of trying to nail down the states that will be impacted the most. Remember, tropical systems are not storm scale events like tornadoes; that are large and complex, and this one has the potential to effect the entire state of Alabama.
TODAY/TOMORROW: Before we get into the latest on Isaac, our weather today looks mostly dry; I guess an isolated shower is not out of the question, but subsidence (sinking air motion) ahead of the tropical system should keep us rain-free with a high around 90. Pretty much the same thing tomorrow; partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 90s. The chance of rain is very small. Beyond that, it is all up to Isaac.
ISAAC THIS MORNING: This is not a well organized system this morning, and the satellite presentation is certainly not impressive. Based on recon data, NHC has top winds now at 65 mph, and the center is just north of the coast of Cuba.
With so many questions… let’s see if we can answer them….
WHEN AND WHERE WILL LANDFALL COME? Nobody knows. And, I mean nobody. Model spread remains great, run to run consistency remains poor. Many are asking why this tropical system is so hard to forecast… the answer is that ALL of them are hard to forecast. In the Internet/social media world, you are just seeing the men “behind the curtain” and data as it comes in to us. It has always been this way.
One camp (like the 06Z GFS) has Isaac on a continued, persistent northwest track toward NOLA, and then inland over Louisiana and Northeast Texas before recurving northeast. On the other hand, you have the RPM that brings in Isaac near or just east of Apalachicola. But, the best model blend is toward the Alabama/Mississippi coast Tuesday night.
The latest NHC track brings Isaac into Mobile Bay as a category two hurricane late Tuesday night (2 a.m. Wednesday)…. with the center moving northward to near Meridian and Tupelo.
WHERE IS THE GREATEST FLOODING AND TORNADO THREAT? That will be along and east of the circulation center. If the early morning NHC track is correct, all of Alabama will have rains of 5 to 10 inches with potential for small tornadoes in the spiral bands rotating around the center of Isaac. But, this is not certain, and the track could very well change again.
WHAT ABOUT SUSTAINED WINDS INLAND? Depends on the strength of the system at landfall. If by chance Isaac ramps up to category three status, and if by chance the early morning NHC track is correct, this would be like Hurricane Ivan in 2004, which produced much tree and power line damage over the entire state of Alabama, and power outages were widespread. On the other hand, if Isaac is a minimal hurricane, the gradient (sustained winds) up this way over North and Central Alabama won’t be nearly as bad, and the tree damage won’t be as widespread. But, remember, even with a minimal hurricane or even a tropical storm flooding rain and isolated tornadoes will be possible well inland.
WHAT ABOUT SHUTTLESWORTH/BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT? Many are flying out of Birmingham at mid-week for the Alabama-Michigan game in Dallas. If we do have a landfall at Mobile Bay late Tuesday night, Wednesday will be a day with soaking rain and potential flooding in Birmingham with high winds. This could very well force a ground stop at the airport when the circulation center is close, and flight delays are very possible. The weather begins to improve Thursday, and at this point we do not expect any weather related flight delays Thursday and Friday.
WHAT DO I DO NOW? That depends on where you are. Last night, I made the call to those on the Gulf Coast, from Apalachicola through Panama City, Destin, Gulf Shores, Dauphin Island, Gulfport, and over to Bay St. Louis to begin filling vehicles with gas and buying supplies before there are shortages. Those that live on the Gulf Coast, if you didn’t get it done last night, need to do it this morning. Long time coastal residents know what they need… batteries, flashlights, non-perishable food, medicine, etc… be ready for extended power outages. A hurricane watch was issued for this entire region early this morning. And, those in Southeast Louisiana around NOLA need to be doing the same thing.
If you are well inland, in places like Birmingham, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, I would just watch the blog closely today, and if the current NHC track holds tonight, then you might think about what you will need if your power is out for 1 to 2 days, and buy those supplies soon. With Hurricane Ivan in 2004, some had no power for over 5 days, but at this point we don’t expect Isaac to be that intense. But, as discussed here earlier, this is a low confidence track/intensity forecast at this point.
The worst of the weather for inland Alabama, most likely, will be on Wednesday, when it will be windy and very wet as Isaac moves up from the south.
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: We will forecast slowly improving weather by Friday and the weekend, but we could very well remain in a moist airmass if Isaac stays west of here, meaning at least a chance of scattered showers. Forecast confidence is low.
STAY IN TOUCH: Bill Murray will have frequent blog updates all day… I encourage all of you to follow me on Twitter, and subscribe on Facebook… I will answer as many questions as possible, but social media is not a long form platform, which is why reading the blog is very important.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…
I will post another Weather Xtreme video later today…..
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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