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Isaac Morphs Into Nadine?

| September 5, 2012 @ 6:17 am

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EYES ON THE NORTHERN GULF: I must admit that is a rather odd headline that certainly could bring about a few good jokes, but it is an interesting question.

First off, for the northern half of Alabama, the weather will be drier today through Friday as the “ghost” of Isaac has moved down to near the Gulf Coast. There could be a few showers and storms around during the peak of the daytime heating process each day, but they should be widely spaced. We also expect better amounts of sunshine, and heat levels will rise with afternoon highs at or just over the 90 degree mark. Dewpoints remain in the 70s, and it will be pretty sticky.

The better coverage of showers and storms will remain over the far southern counties of the state over the next three days, but even there they should see some decent intervals of sunshine tomorrow and Friday.

WEEKEND FORECAST: No doubt we will have a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday thanks to a cold front moving into Alabama, which will be supported by a strong upper trough, but the amount of rain could very well depend on the situation in the northern Gulf.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the RPM model actually does develop a 1000 mb low in the Gulf south of Mobile Bay Friday. The upper pattern looks favorable, and I would not be totally surprised if a tropical depression, or even a tropical storm forms there. I think Isaac has been sliced and diced so much in the mid-latitude westerlies that NHC would give it a new name, which would be “Nadine”, if the system does develop.

Even without a tropical system, I would still plan on a wet Saturday as the front moves through. A few strong storms are possible but at this point the chance of organized severe weather doesn’t look especially high.

REFRESHING CHANGE: A cool, dry, continental airmass will drop into Alabama Sunday. The 00Z GFS is not as deep with the upper trough, but we have seen other runs that almost close off an upper low just north of here. We will mention a slight risk of a shower Sunday afternoon just in case a cold core system is nearby, but the day should be delightful with a high in the 75-79 degree range and a fresh north freeze.

The first half of next week looks dry and pleasant, with mostly sunny comfortable days and clear cool nights. A good chance we visit the 50s Monday and Tuesday morning. And, we will be watching those cooler pockets across North Alabama to see if anybody can hit the upper 40s for the first time this cool weather season.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Leslie could threaten Bermuda Saturday as a hurricane, and then early next week it might be a threat to the Canadian maritimes. But, no impact for the U.S. other than some rough surf along the East Coast. And, Tropical Storm Michael is in the middle of nowhere, and should stay in the middle of nowhere over the next 5 days. No threat to land. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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