Bring on the Rain!!

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After nine days of dry weather the weather pattern will be undergoing a change that should provide us with several days of wet weather. Moisture has been slowly increasing in Central Alabama and we are beginning to tap into Pacific moisture, so there is some potential for heavy rain to occur primarily on Monday as the upper trough edges closer and deepens.

For today, a weak front will be traversing the area from north to south and with it the possibility of showers. A few showers and patchy light rain were occurring this morning mainly over Northeast Alabama. The weak trough over Texas has already begun to generate numerous showers over a big portion of Texas, something I’m sure they are glad to see after the drought conditions they’ve had there. The upper weak low will gradually intensify and deepen through Monday and actually close off as we head into Tuesday. A surface low will come out of Texas and across Alabama on Monday which could produce a very wet day for much of the Southeast US and Alabama. There are still some slight model differences but the GFS and European are in reasonably close agreement of bringing the low across northern Alabama.

The closed low moves northeast Tuesday and opens on Wednesday taking the surface low northeast away from the state. This means that Tuesday will be a day with improving weather as the rain gradually ends from the southwest. Wednesday we should see a return of sunshine with highs around 80. And we stay dry through Friday, so high school football games should be free of rain.

A cold front moves closer to us on Saturday which would mean another shot at some rain. Right now the amount of moisture this front will have to work with seems somewhat restricted, so we will probably only see scattered showers with temperatures remaining close to typical for early October, highs around 81 and lows around 60.

SPC does not outlook any specific areas for severe weather at this time. Conditions appear marginal for severe weather due in part to the saturated atmosphere thanks to lots of moisture coming out of the Pacific. However, while the severe weather threat appears low there is potential that we could see heavy rains especially late Sunday and into Monday. Rainfall amounts will potentially reach the 2 to 3 inch range. While we have had about 9 days of dry weather, this could produce some flood issues. The future track of the surface low will determine where and when the heavy rain will occur.

The tropics are relatively quiet with our only focus on Nadine. I’m convinced Nadine is related to the Energizer Bunny! That storm just keeps on going and going and going and going!!! Fortunately it is located in the middle of the Atlantic, so it is no threat to land. Nadine is expected to gradually weaken over the next five days – yup, we’ve heard that story before!!

Long term forecast projections continue to show generally troughiness over the eastern half of the country. That should keep us away from any extremes of temperature through the middle of October.

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. I want to thank Don Hartley, EMA Area Coordinator for Alabama Emergency Management Agency,for the invitation to speak to the EMA class at the University of Alabama the past Wednesday. It was nice being on the campus of the University of Alabama and talking about severe weather. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day and keep the umbrella handy. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather